Housing Market Update – March 20, 2024

National Home Data

Housing Starts are finally showing signs of life, rising 10.7% in February to a 1.52M unit annualized pace. Starts are up 5% year over year, while Single-Family Starts rose 11.6% and are now up 35.2% from last year. Building permits for single-family homes rose 1% in February and are up 29.5% year over year. Overall, there has been a recent shift in construction from multi-family to single-family, which should help alleviate some of the inventory issues the housing market has been dealing with for years. While the majority of multi-family homes built are converted to rentals, single-family homes are primarily sold upon completion.

Another sign of good things to come is the February NAHB Housing Market Index, which showed builder confidence siring 2 points to 51, the highest level in eight months. Current Sales rose 4 points to 56, Future Expectations rose 2 points to 62, and Buyer traffic rose 2 points to 34. Outside of buyer traffic, all of these levels indicate an expansion in housing.

Black Knight released their January appreciation data showing home values rose 0.2% for the month and were up 5.6% annually. Conversely, the CoreLogic Home Price Insights report showed home prices fell 0.1% in January and were up 5.8% year over year. Compared to last winter, home prices are holding stronger and seeing a lower seasonal decline, which could mean stronger spring appreciation numbers. While we are seeing a slight increase in inventory compared to last year, demand is up as we consistently see multiple offers on homes our clients want to purchase.

The Case Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices rose 0.2% in December.  Year-over-year prices are up 5.6% and continue to set new all-time highs. Since 2019, Case Shiller reported that home values have risen 46%. FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) also released its House Price Index, which measures home appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loan amounts and does not include cash buyers or jumbo loans. The report showed prices higher by 0.1% in December and up 6.6% from a year ago. This is now the eleventh month the index has hit record highs in a row. 

With all the data now in, here are the final appreciation numbers for 2023:

Case Shiller: 5.6%

FHFA: 6.6%

CoreLogic: 5.5%

Black Knight: 5.6%

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Local Housing Data

Local housing prices appear to have stabilized and, in some cases, are showing signs of moving higher, albeit at a more moderate pace than we’ve seen over the past several years. Inventory remains tight, and we continue to see more buyers than sellers. Markets and trends can vary depending on where you’re looking, so we provide some key indicators below broken down by county so you can see what your market is currently doing.

King County – Washington

Median Home Price

$924,452

Price Per Square Foot

$584

Forecasted Appreciation

+4.88%

1-Year

+23.73%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$219364
  • Annual Household Formations
40,480
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
24,340
  • Actual Homes Being Built
11,065 *
* Which means almost 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
232,200
King County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years.

Snohomish County – Washington

Median Home Price

$740,810

Price Per Square Foot

$436

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.29%

1-Year

+24.19%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$179,165
  • Annual Household Formations
12,120
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,286
  • Actual Homes Being Built
2,638 *
* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
68,800
Snohomish County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years.

Pierce County – Washington

Median Home Price

$537,898

Price Per Square Foot

$333

Forecasted Appreciation

+4.88%

1-Year

+21.6%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$116,192
  • Annual Household Formations
13,930
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
9,038
  • Actual Homes Being Built
2,843 *
* Which means over 5,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
83,200
Pierce County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years.

Spokane County – Washington

Median Home Price

$418,599

Price Per Square Foot

$356

Forecasted Appreciation

+3.43%

1-Year

+17.71%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$74,136
  • Annual Household Formations
7,674
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
4,841
  • Actual Homes Being Built
2,937 *
* Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
52,200
Spokane County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year.

Multnomah County – Oregon

Median Home Price

$530,669

Price Per Square Foot

$442

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.16%

1-Year

+26.21%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$139,103
  • Annual Household Formations
14,790
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,691
  • Actual Homes Being Built
2,496 *
* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
82,200
Multnomah County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year and 5 years.

Ada County – Idaho

Median Home Price

$516,608

Price Per Square Foot

$295

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.00%

1-Year

+23.45%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$121,125
  • Annual Household Formations
6,530
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
4,476
  • Actual Homes Being Built
4,828 *
* Which means there is a surplus of over 2,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
42,800

Denver County – Colorado

Median Home Price

$645,757

Price Per Square Foot

$598

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.12%

1-Year

+24.50%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$158,219
  • Annual Household Formations
16,420
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,693
  • Actual Homes Being Built
6,235 *
* Which means over 2,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
85,700

San Diego County – California

Median Home Price

$980,199

Price Per Square Foot

$659

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.63%

1-Year

+25.03%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$245,296
  • Annual Household Formations
16,420
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,693
  • Actual Homes Being Built
8,519 *
* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
379,400

Los Angeles County – California

Median Home Price

$881,906

Price Per Square Foot

$634

Forecasted Appreciation

+4.79%

1-Year

+26.21%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$231,182
  • Annual Household Formations
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
  • Actual Homes Being Built
21,106 
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
1,230,000

San Fransisco County – California

Median Home Price

$1,474,986

Price Per Square Foot

$984

Forecasted Appreciation

+6.35%

1-Year

+31.49%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$464,399
  • Annual Household Formations
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
  • Actual Homes Being Built
949 *
* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
111,200

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