Mortgage Rates This Week – April 10, 2024

Mortgage rates continue their upward trend so far this week, reaching fresh new highs for the year. While rates are higher than what we’ve seen over the past few months, we’re still down around 0.5% from last fall. The 30-year fixed rate currently sits at 6.250%, 6.423% APR with points, and 7.000%, 7.038% APR with 0 points for borrowers with excellent credit and 25% down on a Single-Family Primary Residence.

Today, rates jumped on a stronger-than-expected CPI (Consumer Price Index) report, which showed that progress on inflation has stalled. Hopes that the data from the past couple of months was a temporary speed bump to lower inflation were dashed with today’s report, as overall inflation rose 0.4% for the month and increased from 3.2% to 3.5% year over year. Both numbers were hotter than the markets were expecting. Additionally, the more closely watched core rate, which removes volatile food and energy costs, also increased by 0.4% in March, and the year-over-year rate stayed flat at 3.8%, both of which were worse than the market expected. The bond markets reacted immediately, pushing mortgage rates higher by .25% shortly after the report’s release. The biggest factor in the high inflation data was shelter costs, which comprised 45% of the core CPI reading and continues to defy expectations by rising 0.4% in March. The shelter numbers we’re seeing in both the CPI and PCE inflation data over the past year have been significantly higher than other reports, including those from CoreLogic and the Apartment List Index. Many, including the Fed, have pointed to expected declines in shelter costs as a catalyst for the Fed to start cutting rates; however, so far shelter costs have remained stubbornly high.

Also pressuring rates was Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showing that 303k jobs were created in March, which was much stronger than the 200k expected. The unemployment rate also moved lower, falling from 3.9% to 3.8%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.3% in March and declined year over year from 4.3% to 4.1%, both in line with what the markets were expecting.

With inflation continuing to remain high, many are looking to weaker employment as a catalyst for rates to move lower; however, the overall jobs market and economy remain strong. As a result, future rate expectations are being recalculated, with the market now predicting that the Fed will keep rates at current levels until September. Previous expectations were for a June rate cut, and as recently as January, the markets predicted a March rate cut.

The March ADP Employment report also came in stronger than expected, showing 184,000 jobs created. Additionally, the falling wage trend seems to be stalling as ADP showed annual pay for job stayers increasing by 5.1%, matching February’s reading. Job changers jumped to a 10% increase in March vs. 7.6% reported in February. Friday, we get the more closely watched BLS jobs report, which has recently shown significantly higher job gains than ADP. If the BLS report comes in stronger than expected, which looks likely, expect rates to continue their trend higher.

Late last month, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed that inflation rose by 0.3% in February, which was above expectations. The year-over-year reading increased from 2.4% to 2.5%. The core rate removing food and energy prices rose 0.3%, which was in line with expectations, and the annual rate increased to 2.9%, down from 2.8%. This data reinforces the fact that cooling inflation has stalled. Without declining inflation, if we continue to see strength in employment, rates will have no reason to come down and will see continued pressure higher.

Spring buying season is underway, and we are seeing increased inventory and buyer demand. Many clients trying to purchase are seeing a lot of competition, and multiple offers are the norm. Clients who choose to get a fully underwritten preapproval are seeing more success in getting offers accepted on high-demand homes.

To find the lowest possible rate, compare different lenders and collaborate with a company that offers transparent mortgage rates and costs online. Experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers can guide you through the current market conditions and chart the best course forward.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
04/16/2024

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is running well above the Fed’s annual target of 2%, pushing the Fed’s hand to raise short-term rates to slow things down. While current numbers remain elevated, we expect a significant reduction in the inflation readings in the coming months as various factors moderate the pace of inflation.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) March = 0.4% – Annual = 3.5%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) February = 0.6% – Annual = 1.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.3% – Annual = 2.5% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2024

Loan limits have increased for 2024. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $766,550, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,149,825 for 1-unit properties in 2024.

Visit our 2024 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California,, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits for 2024, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.

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