National Home Data
The NAHB Housing Market Index for April, measuring builder confidence, once again came in at the highest level in nine months, with a reading of 51, indicating a growing market. Sales rose 1 point to 57, as did buyer traffic, rising 1 point to 35, the highest level since last August. Future expectations fell 2 points, likely due to higher mortgage rates, but still came in at 60. Any reading over 50 indicates expansion.
Housing Starts fell almost 15% after rising 10.7% in February. The annualized pace fell to 1.32M units. Starts are down 4.3% year over year. Single-family starts also fell significantly, dropping 12.4% in March, but are still up 21% year over year. Housing starts are volatile, with wild swings from one month to the next, but tracking the year-over-year number gives us an idea of future inventory hitting the market. Overall, the building pace is way below what is needed to support new household formations and keep up with demand. While this supports housing prices, it greatly strains first-time homebuyers and overall housing activity.
CoreLogic Home Price Insights rose 0.7% in February after falling 0.1% in January, which is a very strong number for a normally soft season. Similar to last year, when we had a negative December and January, we expect prices to continue to increase as the spring buying season hits. Demand is strong even in the face of higher interest rates as buyers who remained on the sidelines hoping rates would come down are being forced to accept the current reality or risk getting priced out of the market entirely.
With all the data now in, here are the final appreciation numbers for 2023:
Case Shiller: 5.6%
FHFA: 6.6%
CoreLogic: 5.5%
Black Knight: 5.6%
Local Housing Data
Local housing prices appear to have stabilized and, in some cases, are showing signs of moving higher, albeit at a more moderate pace than we’ve seen over the past several years. Inventory remains tight, and we continue to see more buyers than sellers. Markets and trends can vary depending on where you’re looking, so we provide some key indicators below broken down by county so you can see what your market is currently doing.
King County – Washington | |
Median Home Price $924,452 | Price Per Square Foot $584 | Forecasted Appreciation +4.88%1-Year | +23.73%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means almost 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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| King County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. |
Snohomish County – Washington | |
Median Home Price $740,810 | Price Per Square Foot $436 | Forecasted Appreciation +5.29%1-Year | +24.19%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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| Snohomish County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. |
Pierce County – Washington | |
Median Home Price $537,898 | Price Per Square Foot $333 | Forecasted Appreciation +4.88%1-Year | +21.6%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means over 5,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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| Pierce County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. |
Spokane County – Washington | |
Median Home Price $418,599 | Price Per Square Foot $356 | Forecasted Appreciation +3.43%1-Year | +17.71%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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| Spokane County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year. |
Multnomah County – Oregon | |
Median Home Price $530,669 | Price Per Square Foot $442 | Forecasted Appreciation +5.16%1-Year | +26.21%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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| Multnomah County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year and 5 years. |
Ada County – Idaho | |
Median Home Price $516,608 | Price Per Square Foot $295 | Forecasted Appreciation +5.00%1-Year | +23.45%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means there is a surplus of over 2,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand | | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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Denver County – Colorado |
Median Home Price $645,757 | Price Per Square Foot $598 | Forecasted Appreciation +5.12%1-Year | +24.50%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means over 2,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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San Diego County – California |
Median Home Price $980,199 | Price Per Square Foot $659 | Forecasted Appreciation +5.63%1-Year | +25.03%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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Los Angeles County – California |
Median Home Price $881,906 | Price Per Square Foot $634 | Forecasted Appreciation +4.79%1-Year | +26.21%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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- Renters who can afford to purchase
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San Fransisco County – California |
Median Home Price $1,474,986 | Price Per Square Foot $984 | Forecasted Appreciation +6.35%1-Year | +31.49%5-Years |
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- 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
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- Annual Household Formations
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- 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
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| * Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand | |
- Renters who can afford to purchase
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