Housing Market Update – July 23, 2026

If you’re buying, selling, or refinancing in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, or Colorado, here’s what the market looks like right now – at the state and county level. These are the five states where we focus our lending, and conditions vary meaningfully between them. We’ve pulled the most current data available as of July 23, 2026, so you have a clear picture of where things stand in your specific market.

Washington

Washington’s housing market continues to show the clearest signs of rebalancing of any of the five states we lend in. The NWMLS June 2026 Market Snapshot, released July 2, confirmed that active listings statewide reached 23,088 homes, up 16.4% year-over-year and 8.0% from May, the highest inventory of 2026 so far. The statewide median sale price held at $650,000 for the third consecutive month, though it came in 3.0% below June 2025 ($670,000), marking a meaningful year-over-year price decline that reflects the combined effect of elevated mortgage rates and surging supply. Closed sales rose 10.2% from May and 2.3% year-over-year as the summer market gained momentum, while months of supply edged down slightly to 3.37 – still well below the 4-to-6-month balanced range, but continuing to move in that direction. Nationally, Realtor.com’s June housing report showed asking prices falling 2.5% year-over-year, the steepest decline since 2017, and pending sales rising 3.7% year-over-year for a seventh consecutive month, signaling that buyers are showing up even as sellers are repricing their expectations.

At the county level, King County’s median held at $889,000 in June, up 1.6% from May’s $875,000 but down 2.7% year-over-year from $913,563. Snohomish County saw active listings jump 29.2% year-over-year, with a median of $725,500. Inventory growth across King and Snohomish is being driven in part by Washington’s new 9.9% income tax on earnings above $1 million (SB 6346), which triggered a surge in luxury listings; however, the impact on overall supply is real regardless of cause and is translating into improved conditions for buyers across price points. WCRER Director Steven Bourassa’s assessment from the June NWMLS release remains the clearest summary: “Closed sales increased about 2% year over year but continued to lag the approximately 16% increase in active listings, consistent with the decline in median prices.” Buyers with flexibility on location continue to find their best opportunities in Pierce and Spokane counties, where affordability is stronger and competition is more measured.

County-level indicators for Washington, including median price, price per square foot, 1- and 5-year forecasted appreciation, household formations, homes being built versus demand, and the share of renters who can afford to buy, are shown in the tables below.

* Which means over 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 5,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Oregon

Oregon continues operating in a balanced housing market in 2026. The state has surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels, giving buyers meaningfully more selection than in recent years. The statewide median for single-family homes is approximately $472,000 as of May 2026, with the Portland metro running between $508,000 and $549,000 and appreciation near flat to slightly positive at 1–2% annually.

Days on market have lengthened to around 46 days statewide, up two days from a year ago, and homes are selling at approximately 99% of list price. With around 4.2 months of supply, the market is functioning more like a balanced environment than the seller’s market Oregon experienced in 2021–2023.

Buyers are finding the most flexibility in the Portland suburbs, while Bend continues to command a premium above $600,000, driven by remote-work demand and outdoor recreation appeal.

* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Idaho

Idaho’s housing market continues its gradual rebalancing in 2026. The state has returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels, a significant shift from the severely supply-constrained conditions of the 2021–2023 boom. Statewide median sale prices remain modestly below year-ago levels, while sales volume continues to recover as buyers re-enter a market that now offers more choice.

Boise’s median sits near $495,000, essentially flat from a year ago. With homes spending an average of 68 days on market and only about 14% selling above list price, buyers have meaningfully more negotiating leverage in Idaho than anywhere else in the five states we lend in. Ada County remains the most active market, and is one of the few areas in the country where new construction is outpacing demand, a true surplus that is helping keep prices in check.

* Which means there is a surplus of over 2,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand

California

California’s housing market continued to set records in June 2026. The California Association of Realtors reported the statewide median home price reached $935,600 in June, an all-time high for the third consecutive month, up 1.9% from May and 2.6% year-over-year. Existing single-family home sales were 263,830 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down 4.7% from May as affordability pressures and elevated rates capped activity, but the price trajectory tells a clear long-term story: California’s structural supply deficit continues supporting values even as transaction volumes soften. The persistent tension in California’s market remains: enormous long-term demand, constrained supply driven by the rate lock-in effect (approximately 77% of California homeowners hold mortgage rates below 5%), and an affordability ceiling that keeps only about 18% of households able to afford the median-priced home. The June CPI report, with core inflation falling to 2.6% year-over-year and headline energy prices retreating sharply, is the most meaningful development for California buyers in weeks, raising the prospect of Fed rate cuts that would provide more meaningful affordability relief than any single-month rate movement has delivered this year.

* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Colorado

Colorado’s housing market continues its methodical rebalancing in 2026. Active listings in the Denver metro remain well above year-ago levels, giving buyers the most selection they’ve had in years. The statewide median has softened modestly from prior-year levels, though the Denver metro median has held steadier near $575,000. Sales activity has been recovering: Denver metro closed sales and pending contracts have both shown positive year-over-year trends in recent months, a sign that buyers are slowly returning as inventory improves and affordability stabilizes. Homes are spending an average of 56 days on market in Denver. Colorado Springs continues to offer some of the most buyer-friendly negotiating conditions in the state. The June CPI’s surprise downside print, particularly core inflation falling to 2.6% year-over-year, is significant for Colorado’s front range, where rate-sensitive move-up buyers have been the most restrained segment of the market. If the July 28–29 FOMC meeting signals an open door for rate cuts, Colorado’s inventory-rich environment could see a meaningful pickup in activity through the fall.

* Which means over 2,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

National Home Data

For a broader context on what’s driving mortgage rates, builder activity, and buyer sentiment across the country, here is a summary of the major national housing reports released this week.

CPI Inflation (released July 14, 2026) came in well below expectations and is the most market-moving report of the week. Headline CPI fell 0.4% month-over-month, the largest single-month decline since April 2020, bringing the year-over-year rate down sharply to 3.5% from 4.2% in May, the first slowdown in five months and below the consensus forecast of 3.8%. The driver was energy: gasoline prices fell 9.7% in June as oil retreated following the Iran ceasefire, and the broader energy index dropped 5.7% for the month. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, was flat on the month, the softest reading outside a recession since 2017, pulling the year-over-year core rate down to 2.6% from 2.9%, well below the consensus forecast of 2.8%. EY’s assessment captured the market reaction: “The notably softer core CPI reading has lowered the odds of an imminent rate hike.” The report materially raised market expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of 2026, though Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony the same day maintained a cautious tone, stressing the FOMC “has no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation.” Most economists now view the July 28–29 FOMC meeting as a hold, but the door to a September cut has opened meaningfully.

Pending Home Sales (released July 16, 2026) fell 5.4% month-over-month to a Pending Home Sales Index reading of 72.5, the lowest level since January, and were down 0.3% year-over-year. The decline was broad-based, falling in all four regions month-over-month, led by the Midwest (-8.9%), West (-4.7%), and South (-4.1%). Year-over-year, the Northeast and Midwest held positive, while the South (-0.9%) and West (-1.1%) declined – the latter directly relevant to four of our five lending states. The June result reversed May’s 3.8% jump and came in far worse than the consensus expectation of a 0.5% decline. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the weakness directly to this week’s other major release: “The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers.” Mortgage rates averaged 6.49% for the month of June, the highest since August 2025, which explains the contract-signing pullback. The June CPI print released two days earlier may set a very different backdrop for July contract signings.

Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released July 16, 2026 put the 30-year fixed at 6.55%, up from 6.49% the prior week and the highest level since August 2025, as Fox Business noted. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.93%, up from 5.82%. Khater noted: “Purchase application demand has weakened recently, but housing affordability is more favorable and housing inventory continues to rise; thus, the backdrop for prospective homebuyers is modestly improving.” The timing is notable: the PMMS survey window closed before the July 14 CPI report was released, meaning this week’s 6.55% reading reflects a pre-CPI rate environment. Daily rate trackers have shown rates easing since the CPI print, with the 10-year Treasury yield pulling back as markets priced in increased odds of a Fed cut. The next Freddie Mac PMMS releases today, July 23, 2026, and is expected to show some pullback from 6.55% given the post-CPI bond market rally. Down from 6.75% a year ago, the 30-year remains meaningfully below year-ago levels even at the recent elevated reading.

Housing Starts (released July 17, 2026) rebounded sharply in total terms, but the headline number masked a continued weakness in the single-family segment. Total starts jumped 19.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million, above the June 2025 rate of 1.379 million by 3.5%, driven almost entirely by a 76.3% surge in multifamily starts to 513,000, the highest level in over three years. Single-family starts, however, were essentially flat, slipping just 0.2% to 895,000, and remain down 3.2% year-over-year. Single-family permits fell 2.4% to 871,000, their lowest level since August 2025, and total permits declined 3.0% to 1.367 million, down 2.3% year-over-year. The West was the only region to see annual start declines, falling 4.4% year-over-year, a direct read on conditions across our five lending states. Reuters framed the underlying dynamic clearly: higher mortgage rates and elevated new home inventory are weighing on builder confidence for single-family construction, and single-family permits at a 10-month low confirm that the pipeline is not about to accelerate. The multifamily surge is largely a product of projects permitted earlier in the year finally beginning construction, not a signal of renewed builder optimism.
The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for May 2026 is scheduled for release on July 29, 2026, and will be the first price index update since April’s data (released June 30) showed the national index up 0.8% year-over-year, with Seattle at -2.3% and Denver at -1.8%. That April reading will be contextualized by the May data against a backdrop of rising mortgage rates and the West’s housing starts decline.

The overall picture as of July 23, 2026, is one of a market at a genuine inflection point. The June CPI report is the most significant housing-adjacent data release since the Iran peace deal: core inflation at 2.6% year-over-year and flat on the month provides the clearest opening for Fed rate cuts since the conflict began in February. Pending home sales fell sharply in June as the highest rates in nearly a year deterred contract signings, but those contracts were signed before the CPI surprise and before daily rates began easing. The FOMC meeting on July 28–29 is now the most important event on the housing market calendar. A hold with a clear signal toward a September cut could unlock a meaningful rebound in buyer activity in August and September, particularly in inventory-rich markets like Washington, Idaho, and Colorado, where demand has been present but rate-sensitive.