Housing Market Update – July 9, 2026

If you’re buying, selling, or refinancing in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, or Colorado, here’s what the market looks like right now – at the state and county level. These are the five states where we focus our lending, and conditions vary meaningfully between them. We’ve pulled the most current data available as of July 9, 2026, so you have a clear picture of where things stand in your specific market.

Washington

Washington’s housing market entered the summer selling season with the highest inventory level of 2026 so far, according to the NWMLS June 2026 Market Snapshot released July 2. Active listings statewide reached 23,088 homes in June, up 16.4% year-over-year and 8.0% from May, giving buyers access to over 1,700 more homes than the prior month. The statewide median sale price held at $650,000 for the third consecutive month, though it came in 3.0% below June 2025 ($670,000), marking the first meaningful year-over-year price decline in recent years. Closed sales rose 10.2% from May and 2.3% year-over-year as the summer market gained momentum, while months of supply edged slightly down to 3.37 as the pace of sales kept up with the growing listing count.
At the county level, King County’s median held at $889,000 in June, up 1.6% from May’s $875,000 but down 2.7% year-over-year from $913,563 – the clearest read yet on how the higher-rate environment and elevated inventory are weighing on prices in the region’s most expensive market. Snohomish County saw active listings jump 29.2% year-over-year, one of the five largest county-level gains in the state, with a median of $725,500.

Inventory growth in King and Snohomish is being driven in part by Washington’s new 9.9% income tax on earnings above $1 million (SB 6346), which triggered a surge in luxury listings; however, the impact on overall supply is real regardless of cause and is translating into better conditions for buyers across price points. WCRER Director Steven Bourassa summarized the June data directly: “Median home prices across the NWMLS service area were unchanged from the previous month and 3% below last year’s level. Closed sales increased about 2% year over year but continued to lag the approximately 16% increase in active listings, consistent with the decline in median prices.” Buyers with flexibility on location continue to find their best opportunities in Pierce and Spokane counties, where affordability is stronger and competition is more measured.

County-level indicators for Washington, including median price, price per square foot, 1- and 5-year forecasted appreciation, household formations, homes being built versus demand, and the share of renters who can afford to buy, are shown in the tables below.

* Which means over 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 5,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Oregon

Oregon continues operating in a balanced housing market in 2026. The state has surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels, giving buyers meaningfully more selection than in recent years. The statewide median for single-family homes is approximately $472,000 as of May 2026, with the Portland metro running between $508,000 and $549,000 and appreciation near flat to slightly positive at 1–2% annually.

Days on market have lengthened to around 46 days statewide, up two days from a year ago, and homes are selling at approximately 99% of list price. With around 4.2 months of supply, the market is functioning more like a balanced environment than the seller’s market Oregon experienced in 2021–2023.

Buyers are finding the most flexibility in the Portland suburbs, while Bend continues to command a premium above $600,000, driven by remote-work demand and outdoor recreation appeal.

* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Idaho

Idaho’s housing market continues its gradual rebalancing in 2026. The state has returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels, a significant shift from the severely supply-constrained conditions of the 2021–2023 boom. Statewide median sale prices remain modestly below year-ago levels, while sales volume continues to recover as buyers re-enter a market that now offers more choice.

Boise’s median sits near $495,000, essentially flat from a year ago. With homes spending an average of 68 days on market and only about 14% selling above list price, buyers have meaningfully more negotiating leverage in Idaho than anywhere else in the five states we lend in. Ada County remains the most active market, and is one of the few areas in the country where new construction is outpacing demand, a true surplus that is helping keep prices in check.

* Which means there is a surplus of over 2,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand

California

California’s housing market set a new price record in May 2026, with the California Association of Realtors reporting the statewide median home price hit $930,260 – a new all-time high for the second consecutive month, up 3.1% from May 2025. Existing single-family home sales rose 5.1% year-over-year, though they pulled back 3.1% from April as seasonality and affordability continued to limit activity. The persistent tension in California’s market remains the same: enormous long-term demand, constrained supply driven by the rate lock-in effect (approximately 77% of California homeowners hold mortgage rates below 5%), and an affordability ceiling that keeps only about 18% of households able to afford the median-priced home. With Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed now at 6.43%, a seven-week low, and the Iran peace deal reducing the primary inflation headwind of 2026, California buyers may see a modest improvement in purchasing power in the weeks ahead that could support continued activity through the summer season.

* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Colorado

Colorado’s housing market continues its methodical rebalancing in 2026. Active listings in the Denver metro remain well above year-ago levels, giving buyers the most selection they’ve had in years. The statewide median has softened modestly from prior-year levels, though the Denver metro median has held steadier near $575,000. Sales activity has been recovering: Denver metro closed sales and pending contracts have both shown positive year-over-year trends in recent months, a sign that buyers are slowly returning as inventory improves and affordability stabilizes. Homes are spending an average of 56 days on the market in Denver. Colorado Springs continues to offer some of the most buyer-friendly negotiating conditions in the state. The Case-Shiller April data released this week showed Denver down 1.8% year-over-year, one of the weaker readings nationally, reflecting the same rate-driven affordability pressure visible in the transaction data. The sharp decline in new home starts reported two weeks ago (down 15.4% in May) is particularly relevant for Colorado’s front range communities: fewer starts today means tighter supply conditions in 12–18 months, which will provide a floor under prices even as the current market continues to favor buyers.

* Which means over 2,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

National Home Data

For a broader context on what’s driving mortgage rates, builder activity, and buyer sentiment across the country, here is a summary of the major national housing reports released this week.

Existing Home Sales (released July 9, 2026) fell 2.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units, missing analyst expectations of 4.20 million and pulling back from May’s five-month high. Year-over-year, however, sales were up 2.8%, and the median existing-home price reached a record $440,600, up 1.8% from a year ago, marking the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Total housing inventory edged down slightly to 1.56 million units, a 4.6-month supply, up from 4.5 months in May but essentially unchanged from a year ago. The Housing Affordability Index improved to 102.3, up from 95.5 a year ago, with year-over-year affordability gains across all four regions (Northeast +4.5%, Midwest +6.2%, South +8.3%, West +8.9%). First-time buyers represented 33% of June closings, up from 30% a year ago. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun attributed the month-over-month dip to rate sensitivity: “The back-and-forth in monthly home sales activity, driven by mild fluctuations in mortgage rates, shows how sensitive home buyers are to affordability conditions. However, job gains, more than half a million since the beginning of the year, will continue to provide support for the housing market.” Yun also flagged a longer-term risk: “Without consistent gains in inventory, home prices can accelerate. It is critical to introduce more supply to the market to widen the opportunity for homeownership.” Because existing sales close 30–60 days after contract signing, June’s data captures buyer decisions made during April and May, before the Iran peace deal and the modest rate improvement of late June. July and August data may reflect more favorable conditions.

Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released July 2, 2026 put the 30-year fixed at 6.43% – down from 6.49% the prior week and at its lowest level in seven weeks. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.79%. Khater noted: “With rates at a seven-week low and purchase demand continuing to edge higher, it’s an encouraging sign as prospective homebuyers respond to modest improvements in affordability.” The rate decline reflects the Iran peace deal signed June 27, which pushed oil below $70 a barrel and eased inflation expectations, pulling the 10-year Treasury yield down to around 4.40%. On a daily basis, rates moved slightly higher again heading into the July 4th holiday on thin trading volumes, with the 10-year briefly touching 4.485%. The next Freddie Mac PMMS releases today, July 9. Most major forecasters project the 30-year fixed remaining above 6% through the remainder of 2026, with Fannie Mae and MBA both forecasting a 6.3% average, though the peace deal has introduced meaningful downside risk to that forecast for the first time this year.

The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index for April 2026 (released June 30, 2026) showed the national index up 0.8% year-over-year, a slight improvement from March’s 0.7% and the first acceleration since November 2025, but down 0.1% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the second consecutive monthly decline. Real inflation-adjusted home values fell for the 11th straight month. Chicago led all markets at +6.5% annually; Seattle posted the steepest decline at -2.3% and Denver came in at -1.8%. The next Case-Shiller update covering May 2026 data is scheduled for release July 29.

Pending Home Sales for June 2026 will be released July 16. The most recent reading, May’s 3.8% month-over-month jump with gains across all four regions, was a strong leading indicator that helped set expectations for a solid June existing sales report. The softer-than-expected June result suggests that rate sensitivity from May contract signings outweighed the demand momentum signaled by pending sales. July 16’s release will be the first forward-looking read on buyer behavior in the post-peace-deal rate environment.

Housing Starts (released June 16, 2026) fell sharply, dropping 15.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.177 million – the lowest since May 2020. Single-family starts slipped 1.9% to 882,000, while multifamily starts plunged 41.6% to 284,000. The next Housing Starts report covering June 2026 data releases July 17. Given the ongoing overhang of 10.3 months of new home supply and continued builder caution, a meaningful rebound in starts is unlikely in the near term, and the long-term implication of fewer starts today remains a constrained supply pipeline into 2027.

The overall picture as of July 9, 2026 is a market in careful transition. The Iran peace deal has removed the primary rate headwind of the past four months, and mortgage rates are now at a seven-week low. But the June existing home sales dip, and the record median price that accompanied it, illustrates the fundamental tension that has defined this market all year: buyers respond quickly to rate improvements but pull back when rates reverse, even modestly. Washington state is the clearest example of this dynamic: inventory is at a 2026 high and prices are 3% below a year ago, yet the market is still not in buyer’s territory by months-of-supply measures. For active buyers in any of our five lending states, the combination of more inventory, moderating prices, and the first sustained downward rate move of the year creates a more favorable environment than has existed at any point since early 2026.