Housing Market Update – March 6, 2024

National Home Data

Black Knight released their January appreciation data showing home values rose 0.2% for the month and were up 5.6% annually. Conversely, the CoreLogic Home Price Insights report showed home prices fell 0.1% in January and were up 5.8% year over year. Compared to last winter, home prices are holding stronger and seeing a lower seasonal decline, which could mean stronger spring appreciation numbers. While we are seeing a slight increase in inventory compared to last year, demand is up as we consistently see multiple offers on homes our clients want to purchase.

The Case Shiller Home Price Index showed that home prices rose 0.2% in December.  Year-over-year prices are up 5.6% and continue to set new all-time highs. Since 2019, Case Shiller reported that home values have risen 46%. FHFA (Federal Housing Finance Agency) also released its House Price Index, which measures home appreciation on single-family homes with conforming loan amounts and does not include cash buyers or jumbo loans. The report showed prices higher by 0.1% in December and up 6.6% from a year ago. This is now the eleventh month the index has hit record highs in a row. 

With all the data now in, here are the final appreciation numbers for 2023:

Case Shiller: 5.6%

FHFA: 6.6%

CoreLogic: 5.5%

Black Knight: 5.6%

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Pending Home Sales rose 8.3% in December, which was better than the 1.5% the markets expected. The drop in mortgage rates clearly had a big impact on buyer demand and could be a sign of things to come if rates decline throughout 2024, as expected. New Home Sales measuring contracts on new homes for sale rose 8% in December, also showing the impact of rates dropping. The supply of new homes for sale continues to fall below demand at a 1.46-month supply. This is a slight increase from previous months but still well below the level needed to make a dent in inventory.

Recent data does little to assuage concerns about the limited inventory in the housing market. Existing home values are anticipated to appreciate as demand consistently exceeds supply, particularly for entry-level homes. This trend underscores the necessity for a balanced and sustainable approach to address the persistent supply-demand imbalance in the residential real estate market.

Local Housing Data

Local housing prices appear to have stabilized and, in some cases, are showing signs of moving higher, albeit at a more moderate pace than we’ve seen over the past several years. Inventory remains tight, and we continue to see more buyers than sellers. Markets and trends can vary depending on where you’re looking, so we provide some key indicators below broken down by county so you can see what your market is currently doing.

King County – Washington

Median Home Price

$906,500

Price Per Square Foot

$584

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.76%

1-Year

+27.55%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$249,744
  • Annual Household Formations
40,480
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
24,340
  • Actual Homes Being Built
13,499 *
* Which means almost 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
228,500
King County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years.

Snohomish County – Washington

Median Home Price

$715,289

Price Per Square Foot

$436

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.69%

1-Year

+27.17%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$194,376
  • Annual Household Formations
12,120
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,286
  • Actual Homes Being Built
4,191 *
* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
67,200
Snohomish County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years.

Pierce County – Washington

Median Home Price

$527,396

Price Per Square Foot

$333

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.35%

1-Year

+24.11%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$136,465
  • Annual Household Formations
13,930
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
9,038
  • Actual Homes Being Built
4,681 *
* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
82,800
Pierce County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years.

Spokane County – Washington

Median Home Price

$415,375

Price Per Square Foot

$356

Forecasted Appreciation

+3.94%

1-Year

+20.10%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$89,625
  • Annual Household Formations
7,674
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
4,841
  • Actual Homes Being Built
2,936 *
* Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
51,300
Spokane County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year.

Multnomah County – Oregon

Median Home Price

$525,538

Price Per Square Foot

$442

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.83%

1-Year

+29.03%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$166,333
  • Annual Household Formations
14,790
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,691
  • Actual Homes Being Built
2,555 *
* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
84,340
Multnomah County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year and 5 years.

Ada County – Idaho

Median Home Price

$517,307

Price Per Square Foot

$295

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.63%

1-Year

+25.38%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$127,263
  • Annual Household Formations
6,530
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
4,476
  • Actual Homes Being Built
5,967 *
* Which means there is a surplus of over 1,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
41,000

Denver County – Colorado

Median Home Price

$645,597

Price Per Square Foot

$598

Forecasted Appreciation

+6.64%

1-Year

+28.60%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$186,742
  • Annual Household Formations
16,420
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,693
  • Actual Homes Being Built
6,89 *
* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
85,200

San Diego County – California

Median Home Price

$936,250

Price Per Square Foot

$659

Forecasted Appreciation

+7.50%

1-Year

+37.50%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$351,094
  • Annual Household Formations
16,420
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,693
  • Actual Homes Being Built
6,89 *
* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
93,153

Los Angeles County – California

Median Home Price

$893,650

Price Per Square Foot

$634

Forecasted Appreciation

+8.00%

1-Year

+40.00%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$357,460
  • Annual Household Formations
16,420
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
8,693
  • Actual Homes Being Built
6,89 *
* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
81,133

Bay Area – California

Median Home Price

$1,650,000

Price Per Square Foot

$984

Forecasted Appreciation

+5.70%

1-Year

+28.50%

5-Years

  • 5-year Gain based on the Median Home Price
$470,250
  • Annual Household Formations
10,000
  • 1st Time Home Purchases to be taken from inventory
7,500
  • Actual Homes Being Built
4,681 *
* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
  • Renters who can afford to purchase
136,713

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