Boise Home Prices Are Rising Again, and It Could Continue in 2024

September 11, 2023
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September 11, 2023
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What will Boise, Idaho home prices do through the rest of 2023 and into 2024? Will prices start rising again, or continue to decline as they did during the latter part of 2022? What can Boise home buyers and homeowners expect to see over the coming months, in terms of house values and other market trends?

After three tumultuous years of market activity, many people with a vested interest in the Boise real estate market are currently asking these very questions. And it’s easy to understand why. The Boise real estate scene has experienced significant changes over the past few years.

Now, as we approach the fall of 2023, the Boise-area housing market seems to be entering yet another transitional phase. After falling sharply through the second half of last year, home prices in the Boise metro area have started rising again. And this trend could continue into 2024, as well.

Here’s an update on Boise, Idaho home price trends over the past year, with a “best guess” outlook stretching into 2024.

Boise Home Price Trends Over the Past Few Years

Home prices within the Boise area were following an upward trajectory for many years, even before the COVID pandemic caused a nationwide spike in prices.

For nearly a decade now, the Boise area has been a hotspot for people relocating from more expensive real estate markets. They were attracted to Boise due to the (previously) more affordable home prices, open space, outdoor recreational opportunities, and other factors.

The city of Nampa, in particular, has experienced significant population growth over the past 10 years. This influx of new residents has depleted housing market inventory in the area, while putting upward pressure on home prices.

By June of 2022, the median sale price for the Boise-Nampa metropolitan area had peaked at around $550,000. Ten years earlier, in June of 2012, the median price was closer to $150,000. So we’re talking about a significant level of price growth within a 10-year span of time.

But house values in Boise didn’t remain at that peak for very long. According to Multiple Listing Service data and other sources, the median home price in Boise dropped by more than $50,000 during the second half of 2022.

In fact, the Freddie Mac House Price Index singled out the Boise metro area as having the biggest year-over-year price decline among the nation’s 100 largest housing markets. According to Freddie Mac, house values in the area declined by more than 10% from June 2022 to June 2023. Only Austin, Texas came close to matching that.

Prices Are Rising Again in 2023

Starting in the early spring of 2023, however, home prices in Boise began to rise again. Numerous sources have confirmed this trend, including Zillow and local Realtor associations.

The gains thus far have been modest, and more in keeping with long-term historical price growth trends. And that’s probably a good thing. From a broader economic and stability standpoint, skyrocketing home prices are rarely a good thing.

In Boise, housing market affordability has shrunk considerably over the past five or six years. So, going forward, a slower pace of price growth could be viewed as a positive trend.

Other Housing Market Trends Worth Noting

Boise’s rising home prices aren’t the only noteworthy housing market trend of 2023. The local real estate scene has changed in other important ways, as well. These changes could affect home buyers through the rest of 2023 and into 2024.

One of those changes has to do with inventory levels.

As you probably already know, real estate supply plummeted during 2021 and into the first part of 2022. But when the Boise housing market cooled down during the latter part of 2022, inventory levels started rising rise again. This made it easier for local home buyers to find a suitable property within their budgets, a welcomed change of pace.

Unfortunately, supply levels have declined (again) since the start of this year. They’ve mostly trended downward over the past eight months or so.

Granted, the Boise real estate market is not as “tight” as it was in the midst of the pandemic home-buying frenzy. But it’s still a fairly constrained market, and these conditions continue to challenge local home buyers.

According to the city’s official website: “Boise requires 2,770 units every year for the next 10 years to meet demand … over the last 3 years, housing construction in Boise produced 4,146 units less than the need.”

This also helps to explain why home prices in the Boise area started rising again in 2023. With all other things being equal, inventory declines tend to put upward pressure on house values. That’s because buyers have to compete for fewer and fewer properties, which in turn drives up the final sale price.

The Boise real estate market’s pace has also accelerated over the past few months. The median number of “days on market” has fallen sharply since the start of 2023. This means that homes are selling faster, and that the market might be shifting to favor sellers once again.

Given all of these trends, Boise home buyers who are planning to make a purchase in the near future might want to do so sooner rather than later. Given the current supply and demand situation, it seems likely that prices will continue to climb at a moderate pace this year and into next. So a sense of urgency might be warranted.

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