Housing Market Update – July 30, 2026

If you’re buying, selling, or refinancing in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, or Colorado, here’s what the market looks like right now – at the state and county level. These are the five states where we focus our lending, and conditions vary meaningfully between them. We’ve pulled the most current data available as of July 30, 2026, so you have a clear picture of where things stand in your specific market.

Washington

Washington’s housing market entered summer with inventory at its highest point in years, and the latest data confirms that trend is holding. The most current NWMLS figures show 24,892 active listings statewide and a median sale price of $645,000, down 0.8% year-over-year, with 3.6 months of supply and homes selling at 99.2% of list price in a median of 17 days. That builds on the June NWMLS data released July 2, which had shown active listings at 23,088, up 16.4% year-over-year, and a statewide median of $650,000, down 3.0% from June 2025. The inventory growth is real and broad-based: more than 11,000 new listings came to market in June alone, up nearly 6% from a year ago, and 73.6% of listings across the NWMLS service area qualified for down payment assistance programs. This week’s Case-Shiller data (released July 28, covering May 2026) showed Seattle down 1.8% year-over-year, a modest improvement from April’s -2.3%, the first sign that the worst of the price softening may be passing. The FOMC held rates steady yesterday at 3.5%–3.75% with a 9-3 vote, and Chair Warsh made clear the Fed is watching the direction of data rather than reacting to any single print. With the next meeting on September 15–16, Washington’s rate-sensitive buyers are watching Jackson Hole (August 27–29) as the next major signal.

At the county level, King County’s median held at $889,000 in June, up 1.6% from May’s $875,000 but down 2.7% year-over-year from $913,563. Snohomish County saw active listings jump 29.2% year-over-year, with a median of $725,500. Inventory growth across King and Snohomish is being driven in part by Washington’s new 9.9% income tax on earnings above $1 million (SB 6346), which triggered a surge in luxury listings; however, the impact on overall supply is real regardless of cause and is translating into improved conditions for buyers across price points. WCRER Director Steven Bourassa’s assessment from the June NWMLS release remains the clearest summary: “Closed sales increased about 2% year over year but continued to lag the approximately 16% increase in active listings, consistent with the decline in median prices.” Buyers with flexibility on location continue to find their best opportunities in Pierce and Spokane counties, where affordability is stronger and competition is more measured.

County-level indicators for Washington, including median price, price per square foot, 1- and 5-year forecasted appreciation, household formations, homes being built versus demand, and the share of renters who can afford to buy, are shown in the tables below.

* Which means over 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 5,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Oregon

Oregon continues operating in a balanced housing market in 2026. The state has surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 active inventory levels, giving buyers meaningfully more selection than in recent years. The statewide median for single-family homes is approximately $472,000 as of May 2026, with the Portland metro running between $508,000 and $549,000 and appreciation near flat to slightly positive at 1–2% annually.

Days on market have lengthened to around 46 days statewide, up two days from a year ago, and homes are selling at approximately 99% of list price. With around 4.2 months of supply, the market is functioning more like a balanced environment than the seller’s market Oregon experienced in 2021–2023.

Buyers are finding the most flexibility in the Portland suburbs, while Bend continues to command a premium above $600,000, driven by remote-work demand and outdoor recreation appeal.

* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Idaho

Idaho’s housing market continues its gradual rebalancing in 2026. The state has returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels, a significant shift from the severely supply-constrained conditions of the 2021–2023 boom. Statewide median sale prices remain modestly below year-ago levels, while sales volume continues to recover as buyers re-enter a market that now offers more choice.

Boise’s median sits near $495,000, essentially flat from a year ago. With homes spending an average of 68 days on market and only about 14% selling above list price, buyers have meaningfully more negotiating leverage in Idaho than anywhere else in the five states we lend in. Ada County remains the most active market, and is one of the few areas in the country where new construction is outpacing demand, a true surplus that is helping keep prices in check.

* Which means there is a surplus of over 2,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand

California

California’s housing market set a record median for the third consecutive month in June 2026, with the California Association of Realtors reporting the statewide median reached $935,600, up 1.9% from May and 2.6% year-over-year. Existing single-family home sales were 263,830 on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis, down 4.7% from May as affordability pressures and elevated rates capped activity, but the price trajectory reflects California’s structural supply deficit. This week’s Case-Shiller data (May 2026) showed Los Angeles up 1.2% year-over-year and San Diego up 3.1%, among the more resilient performances in the country relative to Western markets more broadly. The persistent constraints remain: approximately 77% of California homeowners hold mortgage rates below 5%, and only about 18% of households can afford the median-priced home at current rates. The Fed’s hold yesterday was widely expected; the more relevant question for California buyers is whether Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech in late August signals enough openness to a September cut to move mortgage rates meaningfully before year-end.

* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

Colorado

Colorado’s housing market continues its methodical rebalancing in 2026. Active listings in the Denver metro remain well above year-ago levels, giving buyers the most selection they’ve had in years. The statewide median has softened modestly from prior-year levels, though the Denver metro median has held steadier near $575,000. This week’s Case-Shiller data showed Denver down 1.8% year-over-year in May, essentially unchanged from April’s 1.8%, consistent with the broader pattern of measured softening without a sharp correction. Homes are spending an average of 56 days on the market in Denver, and Colorado Springs continues to offer some of the most buyer-friendly negotiating conditions in the state. The FOMC’s hold with three dissents favoring a hike signals that the path to rate relief runs through September at the earliest. For Colorado’s front range, where move-up buyers have been the most rate-constrained segment, the next six weeks, culminating in Jackson Hole and the September meeting, are the most important stretch of the year for housing market momentum.

* Which means over 2,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand

National Home Data

FOMC Decision (July 29, 2026), The Federal Reserve held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% yesterday, voting 9-3 to maintain the current range. Three members dissented in favor of a rate hike, making this the most divided FOMC vote since early in Chair Warsh’s tenure. Warsh acknowledged the dissents at his press conference, characterizing the internal debate as a “family fight” and adding: “I asked for a good family fight, and I got one.” The committee’s statement maintained a cautious tone on inflation, noting that while conditions have improved, price stability remains the primary objective. The hold was widely expected following June’s strong CPI surprise, but the three dissents signal that the committee’s tolerance for further accommodation is limited. CME FedWatch now shows a 41.9% probability of a hold at the September 15–16 meeting, up sharply from 24% the day before the decision, as the hawkish dissents tempered rate-cut expectations. Warsh is scheduled to speak at Jackson Hole on August 28, and that speech is now the single most important event on the housing market calendar for the balance of 2026.

S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (released July 28, 2026) showed the national index up 1.1% year-over-year, a pickup from April’s 0.8% and the first acceleration in six months. The 10-City Composite rose 2.4%, and the 20-City Composite rose 1.6%. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the national index was essentially flat, down just 0.05% – the third consecutive monthly decline, but the pace of decline has clearly slowed. For the 12th straight month, home values fell in real terms: with headline inflation at 4.2% in May, the gap between prices and inflation reached roughly 3 percentage points. S&P’s Rebecca Kaufman noted: “Even on a nominal basis, the market remains noticeably weaker than a year ago. In May 2025, the National Home Price Index was up 2.4% year over year.” Regionally, Chicago led all markets at +6.9% and New York posted +4.2%, while Las Vegas (-1.9%), Seattle (-1.8%), Denver (-1.8%), and Tampa (-1.6%) remained the weakest. Seattle’s -1.8% is a modest improvement from April’s -2.3%, suggesting the bottom of the price cycle may be passing for the Pacific Northwest. The FHFA House Price Index for May was also released Monday, showing prices up 0.3% month-over-month and 2.2% year-over-year nationally, a stronger reading than Case-Shiller, consistent with the FHFA’s exclusion of jumbo and cash transactions.

Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released July 23, 2026, put the 30-year fixed at 6.58%, up from 6.55% the prior week and the fourth consecutive weekly increase, the highest level since August 2025. The 15-year fixed averaged 5.96%. Khater’s quote this week focused on borrower strategy rather than rate direction: “As market conditions continue to evolve, borrowers should remember that shopping around for a mortgage rate can make a meaningful difference, potentially saving them thousands over the loan’s lifetime.” The four-week run of increases reflects a market that had been pricing in rate cut expectations after the June CPI report, then partially unwinding those expectations as the FOMC meeting approached and the hawkish dissents became apparent. Down from 6.74% a year ago, the 30-year remains meaningfully below year-ago levels. The next Freddie Mac PMMS releases today, July 30.

Existing Home Sales (released July 9, 2026) fell 2.4% month-over-month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.09 million units but were up 2.8% year-over-year. The median existing-home price reached a record $440,600, up 1.8% year-over-year, the 36th consecutive month of year-over-year price increases. Total inventory was 1.56 million units, a 4.6-month supply. The next existing home sales report covering July data releases August 11, 2026, and will be the first read on buyer activity in the post-FOMC, post-CPI environment.

Pending Home Sales (released July 16, 2026) fell 5.4% month-over-month to their lowest level since January, down 0.3% year-over-year, with declines across all four regions. The West fell 4.7% month-over-month and 1.1% year-over-year, directly reflecting the June rate environment that averaged 6.49%, the highest since August 2025. Because pending sales lead closings by 30–60 days, the June weakness will show up as softness in July existing home sales (releasing August 11). The July pending sales data, the first month capturing post-June-CPI contract signings, will be released August 18, and will be the clearest read yet on whether the CPI surprise translated into buyer action before the FOMC meeting intervened.

Housing Starts (released July 17, 2026) rebounded sharply in total terms to 1.427 million SAAR (+19.0%), driven almost entirely by multifamily starts surging 76.3% to 513,000, a three-year high. Single-family starts were essentially flat at 895,000 (-0.2% month-over-month, -3.2% year-over-year). Single-family permits fell 2.4% to 871,000, their lowest since August 2025, and were down 0.2% year-over-year. The West was the only region with annual starts declines (-4.4%), directly relevant to our five lending states. The next Housing Starts report covering July data releases August 18, 2026.

The overall picture as of July 30, 2026 is a market that has absorbed the FOMC’s hold with more complexity than a simple “no change” suggests. Three dissenting votes for a hike tell you the committee’s floor is not far below current rates, and Warsh’s data-dependent posture means September is genuinely uncertain. The CME FedWatch shift, from 24% probability of a hold to 41.9% in one day, captures how much the dissents moved market expectations. For housing, the near-term implication is that mortgage rates are unlikely to fall materially before Jackson Hole clarifies the Fed’s trajectory. The Case-Shiller data released Monday offered genuine encouragement: the national index accelerated to 1.1% annual growth for the first time in six months, and Seattle’s decline moderated from -2.3% to -1.8%. The combination of higher inventory, slightly improving price trends, and a Fed that appears closer to done hiking than to cutting creates a nuanced but navigable environment for buyers in all five of our lending states.