For a broader context on what’s driving mortgage rates, builder activity, and buyer sentiment across the country, here is a summary of the major national housing reports released this week.
Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released October 1 put the 30-year fixed at 7.28%, up sharply from 7.03% the prior week and the highest level since November 2023. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.60%, up from 6.42% last week. The quarter-point weekly increase in the 30-year rate was the largest in four years, reflecting a significant rise in Treasury yields. The move adds another affordability challenge for buyers entering the fall market and reinforces how quickly mortgage pricing can change even when home-price growth is relatively modest.
Labor Market: The August Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, released September 29, showed 7.1 million job openings, little changed from July. Hires were also little changed at 5.2 million, while total separations held at 5.1 million. The data point to a labor market that is cooling gradually rather than contracting sharply. Attention now turns to the September employment report, scheduled for October 2, which will provide the next major read on hiring and unemployment and could influence Treasury yields and mortgage rates.
FOMC Decision (September 16, 2026): The Federal Reserve raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first increase since 2023. The decision was unanimous. The Fed said economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace and that inflation remains elevated, while job gains have kept pace with the workforce and unemployment has changed little. For mortgage markets, the key takeaway is not that the Fed’s quarter-point increase directly sets mortgage rates, but that policymakers are reinforcing a higher-for-longer stance while inflation remains above target. Treasury yields had already risen substantially ahead of the decision, contributing to the increase in mortgage rates seen this month.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July 2026, released September 29): The national index rose 1.9% year-over-year, accelerating from 1.6% in June. The 10-City Composite gained 3.4% and the 20-City Composite gained 2.5%. After seasonal adjustment, the national index increased 0.3% from June. Regional differences remained substantial: Chicago again led the major markets at +6.9% year-over-year, while Seattle was the weakest at -1.6%. Denver was down 1.1% and Portland down 0.7%, while Los Angeles rose 1.2%, San Diego 1.6%, and San Francisco 3.5%. The report continues to show modest national appreciation alongside much softer conditions in several Western markets.
Existing Home Sales (August 2026, released September 10): Sales slipped to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, the lowest pace since June 2025, as elevated mortgage rates continued to weigh on demand. Sales were down 1.2% from a year earlier. At the same time, inventory rose to approximately 1.62 million homes, near a seven-year high, giving buyers more selection and negotiating leverage. The national median existing-home price was $429,100. The combination of softer sales and higher inventory reinforces the broader shift toward more balanced conditions, even though affordability remains constrained.
Consumer Price Index (August 2026, released September 11): Headline CPI rose 0.4% in August and 3.4% over the past 12 months. Gasoline prices increased 3.9% for the month and accounted for more than one-third of the overall monthly increase. The report showed that inflation remains persistent despite some improvement in underlying measures, helping explain why the Fed moved to tighten policy at its September meeting. For housing, continued inflation pressure matters because it can keep Treasury yields and mortgage rates elevated even when home-price growth and transaction activity are cooling.
Housing Starts (August 2026, released September 17): Total housing starts fell 2.6% from July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.275 million and were 1.2% below August 2025. Single-family construction moved in the opposite direction, with starts rising 7.6% to 918,000. The forward-looking permit data were softer: total building permits declined 2.7% to 1.394 million, while single-family permits fell 1.8% to 878,000. The mixed report suggests builders increased current single-family production in August, but weaker permitting points to continued caution about future construction.
FHFA House Price Index (July 2026, released September 29): U.S. house prices rose 0.3% from June and 2.6% from July 2025, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Price changes continued to vary widely by region: the Mountain division declined 0.8% for the month and posted the weakest annual increase at 0.6%, while the Middle Atlantic led with a 6.3% year-over-year gain. Together with the latest Case-Shiller data, the report confirms that national home prices are still rising, but appreciation remains uneven and comparatively soft across much of the West.
The overall picture as of October 1, 2026 is a housing market facing a renewed affordability squeeze from sharply higher mortgage rates, even as buyers continue to benefit from more inventory and slower price growth in many markets. Freddie Mac’s 30-year fixed rate jumped to 7.28% this week, while the latest Case-Shiller and FHFA reports show national home prices still rising at a modest pace. Construction spending increased in August, including a 1.1% rise in private residential construction, but single-family spending remained below year-ago levels. For buyers actively shopping, selection and negotiating conditions are generally better than during the supply-constrained years, but financing costs have again become the dominant obstacle to purchasing power.
Washington continues to stand out for expanding inventory and increasingly buyer-friendly conditions. Northwest MLS reported 24,675 active listings at the end of August, up 22.0% from a year earlier, while the median sales price across residential homes and condominiums was $635,000, down 2.3% year-over-year. The latest Case-Shiller report provides another sign of softer pricing in the Seattle market: Seattle home prices were down 1.6% year-over-year in July, the weakest performance among the major metros tracked, although that was a modest improvement from the 2.0% decline reported for June. Buyers therefore have substantially more selection and negotiating room than they did a year ago, but the jump in the national 30-year mortgage rate to 7.28% this week creates a significant affordability headwind heading into October.
At the county level, August’s median sales price was $845,000 in King County and $724,500 in Snohomish County. Snohomish continued to post some of the strongest inventory growth in the region, with active listings up 39.3% year-over-year. Months of inventory also increased, reaching 3.64 in Snohomish County and 3.33 in Pierce County. These markets remain somewhat tighter than the overall NWMLS service area, but buyers still have considerably more options than they did a year ago. The combination of expanding supply and softer sales is improving negotiating conditions across Western Washington, even as higher mortgage rates continue to constrain affordability.
County-level indicators for Washington, including median price, price per square foot, 1- and 5-year forecasted appreciation, household formations, homes being built versus demand, and the share of renters who can afford to buy, are shown in the tables below.
King County – Washington |
|||||
|
Median Home Price $950,004 |
Price Per Square Foot $592 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
|||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
| King County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Snohomish County – Washington |
|||||
|
Median Home Price $757,944 |
Price Per Square Foot $439 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
|||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
| Snohomish County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Pierce County – Washington |
|||||
|
Median Home Price $550,102 |
Price Per Square Foot $336 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
|||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
| Pierce County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 5,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Spokane County – Washington |
|||||
|
Median Home Price $423,909 |
Price Per Square Foot $357 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
|||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
| Spokane County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 year. | |||||
* Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Oregon continues operating in a comparatively balanced housing market in 2026, with inventory well above the tight conditions of recent years and buyers generally having more negotiating room. The latest Case-Shiller report showed Portland home prices down 0.7% year-over-year in July, compared with a 0.4% decline in June. On a seasonally adjusted basis, Portland prices were essentially unchanged from June. The continued softness fits the broader Western pattern of slower price growth as supply improves, but the rise in the national 30-year mortgage rate to 7.28% this week is likely to keep affordability and buyer demand under pressure as the fall market progresses.
Multnomah County – Oregon |
|||||
|
Median Home Price $542,066 |
Price Per Square Foot $443 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
|||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
| Multnomah County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year and 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Idaho’s housing market continues its gradual rebalancing in 2026. The state has returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels, a significant shift from the severely supply-constrained conditions of the 2021–2023 boom. Statewide median sale prices remain modestly below year-ago levels, while sales volume continues to recover as buyers re-enter a market that now offers more choice.
Boise’s median sits near $495,000, essentially flat from a year ago. With homes spending an average of 68 days on market and only about 14% selling above list price, buyers have meaningfully more negotiating leverage in Idaho than anywhere else in the five states we lend in. Ada County remains the most active market, and is one of the few areas in the country where new construction is outpacing demand, a true surplus that is helping keep prices in check.
Ada County – Idaho |
|||||
|
Median Home Price $528,368 |
Price Per Square Foot $297 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
|||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
|
|
||||
* Which means there is a surplus of over 2,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand
California’s housing market continues to reflect the tension between limited affordability and modest price growth. The latest statewide August data showed existing single-family home sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 269,620, up 2.4% from July and 1.4% from August 2025, while the statewide median price was $901,420. This week’s Case-Shiller release, covering July, showed continued differences across the state’s major metros: Los Angeles prices were up 1.2% year-over-year, San Diego up 1.6%, and San Francisco up 3.5%. With the national 30-year mortgage rate jumping to 7.28%, California buyers remain particularly sensitive to financing costs because of the state’s high home prices, even as improving supply provides more negotiating opportunities.
San Diego County – California |
||||
|
Median Home Price $999,794 |
Price Per Square Foot $663 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Los Angeles County – California |
||||
|
Median Home Price $881,906 |
Price Per Square Foot $634 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
San Francisco County – California |
||||
|
Median Home Price $1,507,112 |
Price Per Square Foot $991 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Colorado’s housing market continues its methodical rebalancing in 2026, with elevated inventory giving buyers substantially more selection than during the most competitive years. The latest Case-Shiller report showed Denver home prices down 1.1% year-over-year in July, a slight improvement from the 1.2% decline reported for June. After seasonal adjustment, Denver prices rose 0.1% from June. The data continue to point to measured price softening rather than a sharp correction. However, the national 30-year mortgage rate has now climbed to 7.28%, adding a significant affordability headwind for move-up buyers and other payment-sensitive households as the Colorado market moves deeper into fall.
Denver County – Colorado |
||||
|
Median Home Price $656,358 |
Price Per Square Foot $599 |
Forecasted Appreciation
|
||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
|
|
|||
* Which means over 2,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
It depends on where in Washington you’re looking, but conditions are more buyer-friendly than they were a year ago. Northwest MLS reported 24,675 active listings at the end of August, up 22.0% year-over-year, and the market had 4.21 months of inventory, near the lower end of a balanced market. The median sales price across residential homes and condos was $635,000, down 2.3% from August 2025, while closed sales were down 7.6%. Buyers generally have more selection and negotiating room now, although mortgage rates moving above 7% are still a major affordability challenge.
Significantly. King County carries a median of approximately $950,000, making it one of the pricier markets in the country. Snohomish County sits around $758,000, Pierce County around $550,000, and Spokane County around $424,000. Each of these counties ranks in the top 10% nationally for forecasted five-year appreciation, so the tradeoff is not just price — it’s how much equity potential you’re getting relative to your entry cost. For buyers who can work remotely or commute flexibly, Pierce and Spokane offer substantially lower prices with comparable long-term demand fundamentals.
Even with inventory improving, Washington’s major counties are still building far fewer homes than demand requires. King County needs over 10,000 more homes built annually than are currently under construction. Snohomish and Pierce each have gaps of 5,000–6,000 units per year. That structural undersupply is what underpins the long-term appreciation forecasts for these counties — demand will continue to outpace supply even as the short-term market softens. For buyers, it means that while you have more negotiating room today than in recent years, the long-term case for buying rather than waiting remains strong in Washington.
Yes, Oregon is one of the more buyer-friendly markets in this report right now. Inventory has surpassed 2019 levels, homes are spending around 46 days on market, and the sale-to-list ratio is approximately 99%, meaning sellers are no longer routinely commanding premiums above asking price. With about 4.2 months of supply statewide, Oregon is functioning closer to a balanced market. The statewide single-family median of approximately $472,000 also makes it one of the more accessible entry points across the five states Sammamish Mortgage lends in.
Portland metro homes are running between $508,000 and $549,000, with annual appreciation near flat to slightly positive at 1–2%. That stable price environment is useful for buyers, you’re not racing against rapid price increases while you finalize financing and search. Multnomah County’s long-term fundamentals are strong, with projected appreciation of 5.52% over one year and 26.78% over five years per MBS Highway. The county also has over 6,000 more households forming annually than homes being built, which points to sustained demand pressure over time. Portland suburbs are where buyers are finding the most flexibility right now.
Oregon generally sits between Washington and Idaho on the affordability spectrum. Its statewide median of about $472,000 is lower than the higher-priced Washington counties covered here, especially King and Snohomish, but in a similar general range to the Boise area. What distinguishes Oregon is the balance of accessibility and long-term upside: the Portland area offers a major metro with improving inventory, reasonable days on market, and strong appreciation forecasts without the extreme price points seen in King County or California. For buyers who want a Pacific Northwest location with a more navigable entry point than Seattle-area markets, Oregon is worth serious consideration.
Idaho currently offers buyers some of the most negotiating leverage of any state Sammamish Mortgage lends in. In Boise, the median sits near $495,000. Homes are averaging 68 days on market, and only about 14% are selling above list price. Among the five states covered here, Idaho stands out as a market where buyers generally have more time to make decisions, more room to negotiate on price, and less risk of losing out in a bidding war.
Ada County stands out for a reason that is rare in the Western U.S.: builders are currently outpacing demand there, creating an actual surplus of new construction rather than the shortage seen almost everywhere else. That gives buyers the option to consider new homes without competing against a backlog of unmet demand, and it provides negotiating room on both resale and new construction. Long-term fundamentals still support buying: Ada County projects 5.40% appreciation over one year and 23.87% over five years, and there are over 42,000 renters in the county who can currently afford to purchase, representing a deep pool of future demand.
The recent modest price softness in Idaho reflects a market correcting from overheated conditions, not deteriorating fundamentals. The underlying demand drivers remain intact: household formations, job growth, and an affordability profile that continues to attract in-migration from higher-cost Western states. For buyers who plan to stay in the home for five or more years, buying during a period of price moderation with strong long-term forecasts, nearly 24% projected appreciation over five years in Ada County, is generally a favorable position. Timing the exact bottom is difficult; buying when you have negotiating leverage and a clear financial plan is more actionable.
California is the most challenging state in this report for affordability because home prices remain very high and mortgage rates have moved above 7%. Of the three counties tracked here, Los Angeles has the lowest median at approximately $882,000, making it the most accessible entry point of the group. San Diego sits near $1,000,000 and San Francisco at about $1,507,000. For buyers targeting California, working with a lender early to understand loan programs and down payment options is especially important given the price points involved.
Supply has improved, but it is still not loose enough to create major price declines in most California markets. The California Association of REALTORS® reported the Unsold Inventory Index rose to 3.7 months in August, the highest level in six months, while the statewide median price was still essentially flat from a year earlier at +0.1%. Regional conditions are also mixed, with Southern California prices up 2.9% year-over-year and the San Francisco Bay Area down 0.2%. That combination points to a market with more choice for buyers, but not broad pricing weakness.
It may be, depending on the county and the choices available. The county data here show that supply conditions differ meaningfully across California. San Diego is still undersupplied relative to demand, while San Francisco has extremely limited building activity compared with its long-term housing needs. In markets where buyers can find more new construction options, that can create another path into the market, but resale and new-build opportunities remain highly location-specific in California.
Colorado is moving toward more balanced, buyer-friendlier conditions than in recent years. Active listings in the Denver metro remain well above year-ago levels, giving buyers more selection than they had during the most competitive years. The latest Case-Shiller report showed Denver prices down 1.2% year-over-year, which is more consistent with measured softening than a sharp correction. Homes are also spending longer on the market, and buyers generally have more negotiating leverage than they did during the pandemic-era boom.
Strong. Despite the near-term price softness, Denver County projects 5.56% appreciation over one year and 25.08% over five years per MBS Highway data. The county needs over 2,500 more homes built annually than are currently under construction, and there are over 85,000 renters in Denver who can currently afford to purchase — a significant pool of future demand that supports prices over time. Buyers who purchase during this softer period and plan to hold for five or more years are well-positioned relative to those who bought at peak prices.
Colorado occupies a useful middle ground. Denver County’s median home price of roughly $656,000 is below the California counties covered here and below King County, but above lower-cost markets such as Pierce County, Spokane County, Ada County, and Multnomah County. What makes Colorado particularly interesting right now is the combination of improving inventory, modest price softening, and more buyer leverage than during the boom years. If you’re weighing multiple states, Colorado and Idaho currently look more negotiable from a buyer’s standpoint, while several Washington, Oregon, and California markets pair higher entry prices with strong long-term appreciation forecasts.
Our loan officers are ready and waiting to help you apply for your home loan.
Learn more about the people behind Sammamish Mortgage
Whether you’re buying a home or ready to refinance, our professionals can help.
Mortgage Support — 24/7
No Obligation and transparency 24/7. Instantly compare live rates and costs from our network of lenders across the country. Real-time accurate rates and closing costs for a variety of loan programs custom to your specific situation.
Adjust the parameters based on what you want to track
