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Oregon Housing Market Forecast for 2017: Slower Growth Ahead?

Home prices within the Oregon housing market will likely continue to appreciate in 2017, though possibly at a slower pace than what we’ve seen over the last year. This is based on two recent housing market forecasts for Oregon.

One forecast was issued by the economic research team at Zillow. The other real estate prediction came from CoreLogic, a property analytics company based in Irvine, California. Both groups expect Oregon to outpace the nation during 2017, in terms of home price increases.

Oregon Housing Market / Home Price Forecasts for 2017

The home price forecasts in the bullet points below were issued by Zillow in November 2016. Their 1-year projections extend through November 2017. As you can see, their 2017 housing market forecast for Oregon is stronger than the national outlook. The outlook for the city of Portland is even stronger, which comes as no surprise.

Here are Zillow’s projections issued in November:

  • Portland: Prices rose 19.2% over last year | 1-year forecast +6.9%
  • Oregon: Prices rose 13% over last year | 1-year forecast +5%
  • U.S.: Prices rose 5.5% over last year | 1-year forecast +2.9%

A similar report from the property analytics company CoreLogic suggests that Oregon home prices will rise by just over 6% from September 2016 to September 2017. Nationally, the company expects to prices to rise by around 5.2% during the same 12-month period.

Mortgage Rate Outlook for 2017

Rising home prices are one concern for Oregon home buyers, especially in the wake of the double-digit gains we’ve seen over the last year. But what about mortgage rates? The good news here is that a major increase is not expected, though interest rates might rise over the coming months.

According to its latest Mortgage Finance Forecast issued in October, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expects 30-year home loan rates to rise gradually between now end the fourth quarter of 2017.

The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage loan is currently hovering around 3.54%, according to the weekly survey conducted by Freddie Mac. MBA’s analysts expect that average to inch upward to 3.7% by the end of this year, and climb above 4% during 2017.

Here are the MBA’s quarterly forecasts for 30-year loan rates, from their latest forecast:

  • Q1 2017: 3.9%
  • Q2 2017: 4.1%
  • Q3 2017: 4.3%
  • Q4 2017: 4.4%

Summary of Real Estate Predictions

Based on these and other reports, the Oregon housing market forecast for 2017 could be summed up as follows.

Home prices across the state will likely continue to rise through the end of 2017. The Portland metro area will probably see the largest gains next year, due to high demand and limited supply within the city. Statewide, Oregon home prices could continue to outpace the nation, though some deceleration is expected.

Thirty-year mortgage rates are expected to move north through the end of this year and into next, possibly exceeding 4% by the middle of 2017.

Disclaimer: This article contains predictions and forecasts for the Oregon real estate market in 2017. These forward-looking statements were provided by third parties not associated with our company. We have compiled and presented them here as an educational service for our readers. Housing and economic forecasts should be viewed as an educated guess, not as facts.

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