For a broader context on what’s driving mortgage rates, builder activity, and buyer sentiment across the country, here is a summary of the major national housing reports released this week.
Mortgage Rates: Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey released October 22 showed the 30-year fixed mortgage rate easing to 7.32%, down from 7.40% last week, the first weekly decline since late August. The 15-year fixed averaged 6.68%, compared with 6.71% the previous week. The pullback provides modest relief after a sustained increase in borrowing costs, but rates remain substantially above year-ago levels. Mortgage pricing continues to respond to longer-term Treasury yields and inflation expectations, so affordability remains challenging for many buyers.
Labor Market: September employment data showed subdued hiring, with employers adding 29,000 jobs and the unemployment rate at 4.2%. The Federal Reserve’s October 14 Beige Book also described businesses as cautious about hiring while generally retaining existing staff. Slower job growth can weigh on housing demand and buyer confidence, particularly when higher mortgage payments already limit purchasing power.
FOMC Outlook: The Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting is scheduled for October 27–28. Policymakers face a difficult balance between persistent price pressures and softer housing and labor-market activity. This week’s weaker pending home sales and construction figures underline the sensitivity of housing demand to borrowing costs. Although Freddie Mac’s mortgage-rate survey showed a modest decline on October 22, longer-term Treasury yields and expectations for inflation and Fed policy remain the principal drivers of mortgage pricing.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July 2026, released September 29): The national index rose 1.9% year-over-year, accelerating from 1.6% in June. The 10-City Composite gained 3.4% and the 20-City Composite gained 2.5%. After seasonal adjustment, the national index increased 0.3% from June. Regional differences remained substantial: Chicago again led the major markets at +6.9% year-over-year, while Seattle was the weakest at -1.6%. Denver was down 1.1% and Portland down 0.7%, while Los Angeles rose 1.2%, San Diego 1.6%, and San Francisco 3.5%. The report continues to show modest national appreciation alongside much softer conditions in several Western markets.
Existing Home Sales (September 2026, released October 13): Existing-home sales increased 1.5% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.99 million, according to the National Association of REALTORS®. Despite the monthly improvement, sales were down 2.2% from September 2025 and remained below an annual pace of 4 million. The national median existing-home price was $417,500, a record for September, while inventory reached 1.60 million homes. More available homes are giving buyers additional choices, but elevated mortgage rates continue to restrict affordability and transaction volume.
Pending Home Sales (September 2026, released October 20): The National Association of REALTORS® reported that pending home sales fell 7.3% from August and 11.3% from September 2025. Contract signings declined in all four major regions, with the West recording the largest monthly drop. Because pending sales reflect signed contracts rather than completed transactions, the decline points to weaker existing-home sales activity in the months ahead. Higher mortgage rates during September reduced purchasing power even as more listings gave buyers greater choice.
Housing Starts (September 2026, released October 20): Total housing starts declined 5.2% from August to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of approximately 1.22 million, down 7.4% from September 2025. Single-family starts fell 4.6% to 859,000, while single-family building permits declined 4.0% to 845,000. The weaker figures indicate that builders are adjusting production to slower buyer demand and elevated financing costs. Reduced new construction could eventually limit future supply, even as resale inventory offers buyers more choice today.
FHFA House Price Index (July 2026, released September 29): U.S. house prices rose 0.3% from June and 2.6% from July 2025, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Price changes continued to vary widely by region: the Mountain division declined 0.8% for the month and posted the weakest annual increase at 0.6%, while the Middle Atlantic led with a 6.3% year-over-year gain. Together with the latest Case-Shiller data, the report confirms that national home prices are still rising, but appreciation remains uneven and comparatively soft across much of the West.
The overall picture as of October 22, 2026 is a housing market with improving buyer choice but weak contract activity and a more cautious construction sector. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.32% this week, offering some relief after recent increases, yet borrowing costs remain elevated. September pending home sales fell sharply, while housing starts and single-family permits declined. California also reported softer September sales despite relatively stable prices. Buyers may find more negotiating opportunities in several markets, but affordability and confidence remain major constraints on a sustained recovery.
Washington continues to stand out for expanding inventory and more buyer-friendly conditions. Northwest MLS reported 24,965 active listings at the end of September, up 24.5% from a year earlier, while pending sales fell 15.1% and closed sales declined 8.9%. The median sales price was $625,000, down 0.9% year-over-year, and months of inventory rose to 4.44. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.32% this week, but financing costs remain high enough to limit purchasing power. The latest national pending-sales decline also suggests that buyers may continue to take a cautious approach through the fall.
At the county level, September’s median sales price was $850,000 in King County, unchanged from a year earlier, and $720,000 in Snohomish County. Inventory increased 31.1% year-over-year in King County, 44.2% in Snohomish County, and 21.6% in Pierce County. Pierce County had 3.79 months of inventory. The growing supply of available homes is improving buyers’ options across Western Washington, although local conditions still vary considerably by county and price range.
County-level indicators for Washington, including median price, price per square foot, 1- and 5-year forecasted appreciation, household formations, homes being built versus demand, and the share of renters who can afford to buy, are shown in the tables below.
King County – Washington |
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Median Home Price $950,004 |
Price Per Square Foot $592 |
Forecasted Appreciation
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| King County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 10,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Snohomish County – Washington |
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Median Home Price $757,944 |
Price Per Square Foot $439 |
Forecasted Appreciation
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| Snohomish County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Pierce County – Washington |
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Median Home Price $550,102 |
Price Per Square Foot $336 |
Forecasted Appreciation
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| Pierce County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 5,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Spokane County – Washington |
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Median Home Price $423,909 |
Price Per Square Foot $357 |
Forecasted Appreciation
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| Spokane County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 5 year. | |||||
* Which means almost 2,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Oregon continues operating in a comparatively balanced housing market in 2026, with greater inventory and more negotiating room than during the most competitive years. July Case-Shiller data showed Portland home prices down 0.7% year-over-year, reflecting softer pricing across parts of the West. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.32% this week, but remains elevated. The nationwide decline in September pending sales and the slowdown in new construction reinforce the importance of financing costs and buyer confidence as the fall market progresses.
Multnomah County – Oregon |
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Median Home Price $542,066 |
Price Per Square Foot $443 |
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| Multnomah County ranks in the top 10% for forecasted appreciation over the next 1 year and 5 years. | |||||
* Which means over 6,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Idaho’s housing market continues its gradual rebalancing in 2026. The state has returned to pre-pandemic inventory levels, a significant shift from the severely supply-constrained conditions of the 2021–2023 boom. Statewide median sale prices remain modestly below year-ago levels, while sales volume continues to recover as buyers re-enter a market that now offers more choice.
Boise’s median sits near $495,000, essentially flat from a year ago. With homes spending an average of 68 days on market and only about 14% selling above list price, buyers have meaningfully more negotiating leverage in Idaho than anywhere else in the five states we lend in. Ada County remains the most active market, and is one of the few areas in the country where new construction is outpacing demand, a true surplus that is helping keep prices in check.
Ada County – Idaho |
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Median Home Price $528,368 |
Price Per Square Foot $297 |
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* Which means there is a surplus of over 2,000 more homes being built annually vs. demand
California’s housing market softened in September as higher borrowing costs weighed on demand. The California Association of REALTORS® reported existing single-family sales at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 260,410, down 3.4% from August and 6.5% from September 2025. The statewide median price was $899,720, down 0.2% from August but up 1.7% year-over-year. The Unsold Inventory Index held at 3.7 months, and active listings edged up 0.5% from a year earlier. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.32% this week, but California’s high home prices continue to make buyers particularly sensitive to monthly financing costs.
San Diego County – California |
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Median Home Price $999,794 |
Price Per Square Foot $663 |
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* Which means over 1,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Los Angeles County – California |
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Median Home Price $881,906 |
Price Per Square Foot $634 |
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San Francisco County – California |
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Median Home Price $1,507,112 |
Price Per Square Foot $991 |
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* Which means over 4,000 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
Colorado’s housing market continues its gradual rebalancing, with elevated inventory giving buyers more choice than during the most competitive years. July Case-Shiller data showed Denver home prices down 1.1% year-over-year, indicating measured price softening rather than a sharp correction. Freddie Mac’s 30-year mortgage rate eased to 7.32% this week, offering modest relief, but affordability remains a challenge for move-up buyers and other payment-sensitive households. National declines in September pending sales and single-family construction suggest a cautious outlook for housing activity as the fall market progresses.
Denver County – Colorado |
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Median Home Price $656,358 |
Price Per Square Foot $599 |
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* Which means over 2,500 more homes need to be built annually to keep up with demand
It depends on where in Washington you’re looking, but conditions are more buyer-friendly than they were a year ago. Northwest MLS reported 24,965 active listings at the end of September, up 24.5% from a year earlier, while months of inventory rose to 4.44. Pending sales fell 15.1%, closed sales declined 8.9%, and the median sales price was $625,000, down 0.9% year-over-year. Buyers generally have more selection and negotiating room now, although mortgage rates at 7.32% are still a major affordability challenge.
Significantly. King County carries a median of approximately $950,000, making it one of the pricier markets in the country. Snohomish County sits around $758,000, Pierce County around $550,000, and Spokane County around $424,000. Each of these counties ranks in the top 10% nationally for forecasted five-year appreciation, so the tradeoff is not just price — it’s how much equity potential you’re getting relative to your entry cost. For buyers who can work remotely or commute flexibly, Pierce and Spokane offer substantially lower prices with comparable long-term demand fundamentals.
Even with inventory improving, Washington’s major counties are still building far fewer homes than demand requires. King County needs over 10,000 more homes built annually than are currently under construction. Snohomish and Pierce each have gaps of 5,000–6,000 units per year. That structural undersupply is what underpins the long-term appreciation forecasts for these counties — demand will continue to outpace supply even as the short-term market softens. For buyers, it means that while you have more negotiating room today than in recent years, the long-term case for buying rather than waiting remains strong in Washington.
Oregon appears more navigable for buyers than during the most competitive years. The market is described as comparatively balanced, with greater inventory and more negotiating room, while Portland prices were down 0.7% year-over-year in the latest Case-Shiller data. Mortgage rates remain elevated at 7.32%, so affordability is still a constraint, but buyers are not facing the same kind of rapid price pressure seen in hotter periods.
Portland-area conditions look relatively steady compared with some higher-cost Western markets. Case-Shiller showed Portland home prices down 0.7% year-over-year, while Multnomah County’s median home price was $542,066. Long-term forecasts for Multnomah County remain strong at 5.52% over one year and 26.78% over five years, but the near-term environment looks more favorable for buyers because pricing has softened rather than accelerated.
Oregon generally sits between higher-cost Washington markets and more negotiable Idaho conditions. Washington still includes much pricier counties such as King and Snohomish, while Idaho is described as offering some of the most buyer leverage in this five-state group. Oregon stands out for being comparatively balanced, with more negotiating room and softer pricing in Portland than some neighboring metro areas.
Idaho currently offers buyers some of the most negotiating leverage of any state Sammamish Mortgage lends in. In Boise, the median sits near $495,000. Homes are averaging 68 days on market, and only about 14% are selling above list price. Among the five states covered here, Idaho stands out as a market where buyers generally have more time to make decisions, more room to negotiate on price, and less risk of losing out in a bidding war.
Ada County stands out for a reason that is rare in the Western U.S.: builders are currently outpacing demand there, creating an actual surplus of new construction rather than the shortage seen almost everywhere else. That gives buyers the option to consider new homes without competing against a backlog of unmet demand, and it provides negotiating room on both resale and new construction. Long-term fundamentals still support buying: Ada County projects 5.40% appreciation over one year and 23.87% over five years, and there are over 42,000 renters in the county who can currently afford to purchase, representing a deep pool of future demand.
The recent modest price softness in Idaho reflects a market correcting from overheated conditions, not deteriorating fundamentals. The underlying demand drivers remain intact: household formations, job growth, and an affordability profile that continues to attract in-migration from higher-cost Western states. For buyers who plan to stay in the home for five or more years, buying during a period of price moderation with strong long-term forecasts, nearly 24% projected appreciation over five years in Ada County, is generally a favorable position. Timing the exact bottom is difficult; buying when you have negotiating leverage and a clear financial plan is more actionable.
California is the most challenging state in this report for affordability because home prices remain very high and mortgage rates have moved above 7%. Of the three counties tracked here, Los Angeles has the lowest median at approximately $882,000, making it the most accessible entry point of the group. San Diego sits near $1,000,000 and San Francisco at about $1,507,000. For buyers targeting California, working with a lender early to understand loan programs and down payment options is especially important given the price points involved.
Supply has improved, but it is still not loose enough to create major price declines in most California markets. The California Association of REALTORS® reported that the Unsold Inventory Index held at 3.7 months in September, active listings edged up 0.5% from a year earlier, and the statewide median price was still up 1.7% year-over-year at $899,720. That combination points to a market with more choice for buyers, but not broad pricing weakness.
It may be, depending on the county and the choices available. The county data here show that supply conditions differ meaningfully across California. San Diego is still undersupplied relative to demand, while San Francisco has extremely limited building activity compared with its long-term housing needs. In markets where buyers can find more new construction options, that can create another path into the market, but resale and new-build opportunities remain highly location-specific in California.
Colorado is moving toward more balanced, buyer-friendlier conditions than in recent years. Elevated inventory is giving buyers more choice than during the most competitive years, and the latest Case-Shiller report showed Denver home prices down 1.1% year-over-year. That is more consistent with measured softening than a sharp correction, especially with mortgage rates still high enough to keep affordability under pressure.
Strong. Despite the near-term price softness, Denver County projects 5.56% appreciation over one year and 25.08% over five years per MBS Highway data. The county needs over 2,500 more homes built annually than are currently under construction, and there are over 85,000 renters in Denver who can currently afford to purchase — a significant pool of future demand that supports prices over time. Buyers who purchase during this softer period and plan to hold for five or more years are well-positioned relative to those who bought at peak prices.
Colorado occupies a useful middle ground. Denver County’s median home price of roughly $656,000 is below the California counties covered here and below King County, but above lower-cost markets such as Pierce County, Spokane County, Ada County, and Multnomah County. What makes Colorado particularly interesting right now is the combination of improving inventory, modest price softening, and more buyer leverage than during the boom years. If you’re weighing multiple states, Colorado and Idaho currently look more negotiable from a buyer’s standpoint, while several Washington, Oregon, and California markets pair higher entry prices with strong long-term appreciation forecasts.
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