Last year was a relatively healthy one for the housing market, especially during the latter part of the year. And based on what analysts have seen thus far, many of the housing trends that we saw last year will likely continue for most of this year, of course, with a few key changes and rising challenges.
That said, in order to help you prepare for successfully navigating the current 2026 market, there are a few housing trends and market predictions that you should be aware of—regardless of whether you are selling or purchasing a home this year.
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), existing home sales — which include previously owned single‑family homes, condos, and townhomes — were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of about 3.98 million homes in August 2026. This figure represents the annualized pace of sales based on closings during the month.
Compared with July 2026, existing-home sales decreased 2.0%, and they were also 1.2% lower year‑over‑year versus August 2025.
Yet another trend to look out for this year is the continued growth of the luxury real estate market. Analysts expect the demand for exclusive residential properties or homes to continue throughout most of 2026. What’s more, many people are now rethinking their second homes, thanks to the increase in remote work.
In fact, there has been an increasing trend to make second homes the permanent primary residences for those who did leave the city. And for others, swapping their primary residences for second homes or making them co-primary is also gaining more momentum and is likely here to stay at least for another year.
Buyer location preferences have shifted in recent years, but that does not mean every household is leaving major cities or moving for the same reason. National migration data shows moves are often driven by a mix of housing, family, and employment factors, with housing playing a major role for many movers.
For some buyers, that has translated into stronger interest in suburban and lower-density areas, especially where they can find features such as larger homes, dedicated office space, outdoor space, or easier access to recreation. That helps explain why many homebuyers have shown more flexibility on commute times and neighborhood tradeoffs than they might have in the past.
At the same time, this trend is not uniform nationwide. Some markets may benefit from affordability, some from lifestyle preferences, and others from job or family-related moves rather than a simple move away from cities or higher-tax places. In practical terms, shoppers should focus less on sweeping migration narratives and more on where their budget, space needs, and work patterns align best with available inventory.
A historically tight supply of existing homes for sale is the name of the game in 2026 — a trend that shows little sign of slowing in 2026. Housing inventory is poised to continue in the very low range at least for the next few months.
Thanks to the increase in homebuyers, the increased demand for more living space, and dipping mortgage rates, the housing market has been somewhat competitive. But all signs indicate that inventory will be tight but not low in major sought-after areas throughout the country.
A significant number of new builds available for sale is more likely in 2026. Of course, new houses will help to ease the need for more homes on the market, so the pressure to build sooner rather than later is going to be on for the rest of this year.
Mortgage rates remain one of the biggest variables for buyers and refinancers in 2026, not because they move in only one direction, but because even small weekly changes can meaningfully affect affordability.
Freddie Mac reported that the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.76% as of September 10, 2026, up from 6.71% the prior week. In other words, rates have continued to fluctuate rather than follow a straight downward path.
For borrowers, the main takeaway is that rate volatility can change monthly payments, debt-to-income calculations, and purchasing power from one week to the next. That matters whether you are using mortgage rates to compare lenders for a purchase or evaluating whether a refinance still makes sense.
Because affordability may improve if income growth outpaces home-price growth, some households could see better conditions in 2026 even if rates stay elevated relative to historic lows. Still, timing the exact bottom in rates is difficult, so borrowers should focus on payment comfort, loan options, and readiness instead of waiting for a perfect moment.
Ultimately, these are just a few major trends to keep in mind this year.
If you are thinking about buying, tight inventory and shifting location preferences can still create competition in desirable areas, so pre-approval and realistic payment planning may give you a clearer advantage. If you are deciding whether to wait, keep in mind that affordability is shaped by both home prices and mortgage rates, not just one or the other. And if you are considering a refinance, rate volatility means it may be worth comparing offers and running the numbers rather than assuming a better opportunity is guaranteed later. In all three cases, the most useful next step is to compare current rates, estimate your payment, and confirm how much home fits your budget today.
Sammamish Mortgage can help. We serve clients across Washington, Idaho, Colorado, Oregon, and California. Since 1992, we’ve been providing several mortgage programs and products with flexible qualification criteria to borrowers across the Pacific Northwest. Visit our website to get an instant rate quote or to use our online mortgage calculator. Or, reach out to us if you are ready to get pre-approved for a mortgage.
The main trends include fewer home sales, tight inventory, continued interest in luxury and reimagined second homes, shifting buyer location preferences, and mortgage-rate volatility. For buyers, these trends can affect competition, affordability, and where it makes the most sense to shop.
The broad picture points to a market with slower existing-home sales, limited supply in many areas, continued demand in some higher-end segments, and mortgage rates that may keep moving up and down rather than falling steadily. That means buyers and refinancers may need to focus more on budget and timing flexibility than on expecting one clear market direction.
The available trends described here do not point to a simple crash narrative. Instead, they show slower sales activity, tight inventory, and fluctuating mortgage rates, which creates a more uneven market rather than one defined by a single national outcome.
No clear nationwide price drop is established here. Affordability may improve for some households if income growth outpaces home-price growth, but buyers should remember that affordability depends on both prices and mortgage rates, not just one factor.
It depends on the goal. Buyers may still find opportunities if they prepare for tight inventory and rate volatility, sellers may benefit from limited supply in desirable areas, and refinancers may benefit if available rates improve enough to justify the transaction. The year looks more favorable for well-prepared borrowers than for anyone waiting for a perfect market.
Inventory appears poised to remain tight in 2026, especially in sought-after areas. At the same time, more new construction could help ease some supply pressure, even if it does not fully solve the broader shortage right away.
Many buyers are still showing interest in suburban and lower-density areas, especially when they want more space, home offices, outdoor areas, or easier access to recreation. But the pattern is not uniform nationwide, and moves are also shaped by affordability, work, family, and lifestyle needs.
Not necessarily. Mortgage rates have been fluctuating, and Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed rate moved from 6.71% to 6.76% in the week ending September 10, 2026. That kind of movement shows why borrowers should expect volatility instead of a straight downward path.
Waiting for the exact bottom in rates can be difficult because weekly changes are hard to predict. A more practical approach is to focus on payment comfort, loan options, and how much home fits the budget now, while continuing to compare lenders and monitor rate changes.
Not exactly. The overall trends are described from a primarily national perspective, but local markets can behave differently based on inventory, affordability, job patterns, and buyer demand. Borrowers in Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Colorado, and California should use national trends as context, then compare them against local supply, pricing, and mortgage options.
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