The Boise metro area was one of the hottest real estate markets of the past few years. But by early 2023, it became one of the coolest markets, with home prices dropping and inventory piling up.
Now, as we move into 2024, recent trends and forecasts suggest that the Boise-area real estate market could become more competitive for buyers. While prices have dipped in recent months, they will likely find a floor and start climbing again later this year.
Even more telling, the median number of days on market has declined sharply since the start of this year. This suggests that the Boise, Idaho housing market is starting to heat back up again.
Boise, Idaho Housing Market Forecast Into 2024
If you live in the Boise area or follow real estate trends for this market, you probably already know what occurred during the pandemic days. In short, a lot of people flocked into the Boise metro area, gobbling up housing inventory and causing home prices to skyrocket like never before.
The median home price in the Boise area rose from around $510,000 at the start of 2020, to a peak of $770,000 by the summer of 2022. Prices had been climbing steadily before that period, but the area had never experienced anything like the price surge of 2020 – 2022.
During that same timeframe, inventory levels within the Boise housing market plummeted to record lows. Suddenly, home buyers found themselves competing fiercely for scant inventory.
But as we know from history, these kinds of booming conditions usually don’t last long. That certainly seems to be the case for the Boise real estate market. According to Zillow. The median home value in the area declined steadily over the past year.
Looking forward, however, their forecast for the Boise real estate market predicts that prices could rise over the next year or so, albeit at a much slower pace than what we’ve recently seen.
Of course, housing market forecasts are basically an educated guess. So we shouldn’t focus too heavily on the exact numbers being projected. The broader point is that real estate analysts expect the Boise housing market to begin appreciating through the rest of this year and into next.
And that’s a fairly safe prediction, when you look at current supply-and-demand conditions across the Boise metropolitan area.
The Market Pace Is Picking Up Again
One way to measure the overall pace of a housing market is by looking at the typical number of days homes are listed, before going under contract. In real estate reporting, this is often referred to as the median “days on market,” or DOM.
And when it comes to the Boise real estate scene, this metric has been all over the place during the past three years. Here’s a quick catchup:
- For years, the median DOM for the Boise metro area tracked closely with the national average.
- During COVID, the median DOM in Boise dropped well below the national average, as the market accelerated due to stark supply-and-demand imbalances.
- As of January 2024, Boise’s median “days on market” metric declined year-over-year to 39, as per RedFin.
In short, the Boise-area real estate market heated up faster than most cities during the pandemic-fueled home buying frenzy — and then cooled faster as well.
As a recent Forbes article put it:
“Home-price growth has slowed fastest in pandemic boomtowns including Phoenix, Austin, Texas and Boise, Idaho as high mortgage rates and an uncertain economy deter would-be buyers.”
The local real estate scene appears to be warming back up again, as we move further into 2024.
Home-Price Downturn Coming to an End?
Home prices in Boise declined over the past 12 months. More specifically, the average home price in the city dipped by 1% since the same time last year. Now, home prices in Boise are hovering around $459,653, as of January 2024. That same trend happened in many cities across the country, as the real estate market self-corrected from the home-buying surge mentioned above.
But recent indicators suggest that the downturn in prices might be nearing its end. Data provided by Zillow, along with the latest MLS reports, show a flattening in home values. It seems that the Boise housing market is currently resetting to a new normal, where prices are concerned.
If history is any indication, local home prices will begin to rise again over the coming months, but at a more moderate pace. There is still plenty of demand among home buyers in the Boise metro area. Not as much as before, but enough to put upward pressure on prices.
Outlook for 2024: More Competitive, But Fewer Extremes
Current trends and forecasts for the Boise real estate market suggest that local home buyers could face increased competition for the rest of this year. It probably won’t be anything like the footrace of the pandemic days. But this market clearly seems poised to accelerate into 2024.
Anyone planning to buy a home in the Boise area in the near future should pay close attention to these trends. The local real estate market might now be approaching a “bottom,” where prices are concerned. So it could be a great time to enter the market and make a purchase.
On the other hand, if prices do start rising again as predicted, those who postpone their purchases until later this year could end up paying more.
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