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Recent forecasts for the Boise, Idaho housing market in 2023 suggest the market could look very different next year. After more than 18 months of overheated home-buying activity and record-setting price growth, the Boise real estate market might finally settle down.
This would be a welcome trend for home buyers who are planning to make a purchase over the coming months. Among other things, buyers could enjoy more negotiating leverage in 2023 (compared to what we saw from mid-2020 into early 2022).
Here are three predictions for the Boise housing market in 2023.
Slower price growth, more homes to choose from, and less competition among buyers. Those are some of the current predictions for the Boise, Idaho housing market in 2023, based on where we are right now. So let’s take them one at a time.
Home prices in the Boise-Nampa metro area rose at a rapid pace all through 2020, and for most of 2021. But starting in the fall of 2021, they began to fluctuate up and down, as if they had hit a “ceiling.”
The same is true for many major cities and metros across the U.S. After nearly two years of steady (and sometimes rapid) home-price growth, housing markets across the country are starting to normalize a bit.
According to Zillow, the median home value in the Boise area was around $515,000 as of August 2022. That was down slightly from the all-time high of $535,000 reached in March. We might see additional declines over the coming months, as the market continues to self-correct.
In 2023, some forecasts suggest that the Boise real estate scene could revert back to a more “normal” and sustainable rate of price growth. Other forecasters predict that house values will decline further next year. Only time will tell.
We can’t say for sure what house prices will do next year. But with the way things are going now, it seems reasonable to expect a more normal rate of home-price growth over the coming years.
Another key prediction for the Boise, Idaho real estate market relates to inventory growth. In 2023, home buyers in the area could have many more homes to choose from when compared to previous years. This could shift the local market dynamic in favor of buyers (for a change).
Recent reports have shown that the Boise housing market is now gaining inventory at a rapid pace. That’s a big step in the right direction, from a home buyer’s perspective.
Inventory levels “bottomed out” in December 2021, when there was a meager 0.9-month supply of homes for sale. But by the summer of 2022, the Boise-area real estate market had more than a 3-month supply. That’s still low by historical standards, but a major improvement over last year.
Inventory growth has caught the attention of sellers, as well. Last month, more than 60% of homes listed for sale in the Boise metro area had a price reduction. That’s partly due to the rise in inventory mentioned above. With more homes hitting the market, sellers have to be more flexible with their pricing.
By contract, there were hardly any price cuts at the start of last year, when this market was sizzling. As a result of these changes, Boise home buyers will probably enjoy more bargaining power in 2023.
According to the latest data, Boise-area homes listed for sale last month spent a median of 31 days on the market. That was quite a bit higher than the same time a year earlier. This could be the start of a broader slowdown that continues over the coming months.
Which brings us to a final prediction for the Boise, Idaho real estate scene. In 2023, we could see an overall slower pace of sales, with homes taking longer to sell.
It stands to reason. Today’s higher home prices and mortgage rates have shrunken the buyer pool slightly. Inventory growth, meanwhile, has given buyers more options while easing competition. These trends could make it harder to sell a house in 2023, compared to the past two years.
Disclaimer: This article includes forecasts for the Boise housing market stretching into 2023. Those predictions are based on current trends and therefore far from certain. No one can predict future housing trends with complete accuracy.
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