Seattle Housing Market Forecast: Seven Predictions for 2024

December 27, 2018
Last updated:
January 10, 2024
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The real estate market has been experiencing a sustained and unprecedented boom over the past year, thanks to low inventory, rising demand, and rock bottom mortgage rates. But home prices have stabilized and mortgage rates have spiked recently. What trend will we see in 2024? 

Having a little foresight into what the local real estate market will do in Seattle can help buyers and sellers make better-timed decisions. The question is, what is the real estate market in Seattle doing this year? We’ve got the Seattle housing market forecast predictions you need. 

Here are our predictions for the Seattle housing market for 2024.

7 Seattle Housing Market Forecast Predictions for 2024 

Since late 2019, Seattle’s housing market picked up quite a bit following a temporary slowdown in 2018 and much of 2019. Since then, home prices were on a rapid incline due to several factors, including low inventory, high buyer demand, and the low mortgage interest rates that kickstarted 2022. But over recent months, home prices stabilized and rates picked up.

Here are the top predictions for the Seattle housing market forecast through 2024.

1. Inventory Will Remain Low In a Seller’s Market

Heightened demand for homes in the greater Seattle area has driven inventory into the ground, and new home builds have no clear path forward to catch up in the region. As a result, buyers can expect low inventory to continue well into 2024 and beyond. Right now, Seattle still has less than a month supply of available inventory, which is incredibly tight.

This shortage of inventory will likely continue into 2024 with no clue as to when new housing will start to pick back up. Further, as an increasing number of millennials with decent savings and income levels enter the housing market — both in Seattle and across the nation — the pressure of demand will exacerbate the inventory shortages.

Instability in the labor market has led many homebuyers to delay putting their houses on the market, especially when looking at forecasts that predict home prices will only continue to rise. This narrows the available inventory even more than usual for this time of year, and is creating aggressive bidding wars for available properties. 

2. Home Prices Will Go Up, Though At a Gradual Pace

Not long ago, price reductions were a rarity in the Seattle real estate market. As long as sellers priced their homes close to comparable sales, they were practically guaranteed to have buyers lining up. And in many cases, those buyers were making offers well above the asking price. As of the time of this writing, the median home price in Seattle is $824,264.

But times have changed, as it is now projected that from now until well into 2024, home prices will rise at a gradual and conservative pace. High mortgage rates have kept many homebuyer hopefuls from buying, which is having an effect on the market temperature. 

Clearly, there is no denying that Seattle has seen some of the fastest price appreciation among major cities throughout the country. This was evident throughout much of 2021 and 2022, as home prices in Seattle rose drastically year over year. Moreover, low-interest rates made it easier for borrowers to afford their monthly mortgage payments and open up the market for first-time homebuyers.

However, the record high prices are now joined by rapidly rising mortgage rates, driving down affordability. 

For example, a $500,000 home with 20% down and an interest rate of 6% on a 30 year fixed mortgage has a base mortgage payment of $2,398 per month. 

If the same house still costs $500,000 but the interest rate goes up to 7%, the base mortgage payment jumps to $2,661 a month; a difference of nearly $200 a month and almost $2,500 a year. 

If the same house costs $600,000 and the interest rate stays at 6%, the base mortgage payment jumps to $2,877 a month; a difference of nearly $500 a month and almost $6,000 a year. 

If the same house costs $600,000 and the interest rate goes up to 7%, the base mortgage payment jumps to $3,193 a month; a difference of nearly $800 a month and more than $9,500 a year. 

Many homebuyers just don’t have that big of a swing in their mortgage payment budget.

Today’s Seattle Mortgage

3. Mortgage Rates Will Decline

Mortgage rates in Seattle have soared over the past couple of years. As of this writing, the rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.62%. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) expected the rate for a 30-year loan to dip to 6% by the end of 2024, and decline even further into 2025.  

Lower rates will help alleviate some of the financial burden of buying a home, making mortgage more ffordable for buyers.

4. Affordability Will Continue to Be an Issue for Most Buyers, Though Not as Much as Last Year

While home prices declined in Seattle a couple of years ago, they crept back up and remain some of the highest prices in Washington. The price for a home in the city is still far more expensive than most other cities in the state of Washington. This makes housing affordability an issue.

Plus, the high mortgage rates we’ve seen recently have put a damper on buying a home, as mentioned.

According to reports, homebuyers and owners need an annual income of $106,618 to be able to afford the principal, interest, taxes, and insurance payments on an average-priced house in the city. For many households, this number is not easy to attain, therefore making home buying in Seattle difficult.

With many new buyers entering the market with cash offers, even well positioned millennials can have trouble competing for in-demand Seattle homes in prime neighborhoods. Homes are staying on the market for only a few days in some cases, while others are snapped up by property investors before they even get visibility as a public listing. 

Read more: Seattle Home Prices Drop, But They’re Expected to Rise

5. Demand Will Keep Rising for Seattle Properties

After somewhat of an exodus from Seattle in the slump directly after COVID started, it has regained its spot as one of the fastest growing areas in the United States. It also has some of the biggest numbers when it comes to turnover in its resident population; people tend to move into, out of, and back to Seattle in record numbers. 

When real estate changes hands rapidly during a time of high demand and low inventory, prices tend to keep bumping with each handoff. As demand in Seattle continues to grow despite the cost of big city living, we won’t see this real estate market boom slowing down anytime soon. 

Seattle has a lot going for it, after all. A strong city infrastructure that includes readily available healthcare; a widely diverse population that welcomes people of all cultural backgrounds; and close proximity to other PNW cities with plenty of attractions within driving distance or a weekend getaway.

Seattle has great food, great music, and great scenic appeal. Despite the rainy weather 9which locals say you get used to), there’s no place quite like it in the PNW. Add to that the number of big companies willing to pay employees premium wages to help cover cost of living, and there’s no wonder this is one of the most sought after locations in the United States for prospective homebuyers.

6. The Rental Market Will Get Even Tighter

When home prices go up and inventory goes down, rental property prices also start to tighten. Typical Seattle rents as of January 2024, to $2,026 per month. 

The lack of available housing to buy means demand for rental space is going through the roof, and despite laws preventing landlords from raising rents over approved parameters, as leases expire the costs to rent in Seattle can be expected to continue going up steeply.

Of course, this means buyers who are investing in Seattle real estate with the hope of renting at a profit are quite likely to make their dreams a reality. Shared rental housing is continuing to trend upwards in and around the city, as those who can’t afford the rarified home sale prices struggle to find space in the congested rental landscape.

7. 5 Seattle Suburbs That Traditionally Beckon Cash-Strapped Buyers

All of this leads to an obvious conclusion: the suburbs are also going to see unprecedented growth as sprawl from the city starts to take an even stronger hold and homebuyers resign themselves to a commute or opt to work from home.

Currently, these five suburbs are still (relatively) affordable compared to Seattle’s average home price of more than $824,264, many home buyers are looking further afield:

Federal Way

This King County suburb has stayed fairly affordable thus far, with homes even in the highly beloved Dash Point State Park area running only around $555,439. If living south of Seattle is an option, this could be a good pick.


West of Seattle, it’s buyer’s choice in Kitsap County. With a fast ferry commute, the town of Bremerton is starting to hit the radar, with homes starting around $446,193.


South of Seattle and east of Federal Way lies another relatively reasonable King County suburb: Auburn. Smaller and sleepier than its neighbor, Auburn boasts homes with around a $569,214 price tag.


The seat of Snohomish County is gaining popularity, along with Mukilteo (which boasts another recent ferry renovation.) There is plenty to do and see in Everett as well as a plethora of transit options, and homes in both the seat and Mukilteo are steady at around $604,656.

Lake Forest Park: No Longer on Affordable List

North of Seattle, Lake Forest Park gives residents a beautiful view of Lake Washington from a different point of view than Eastside dwellers enjoy. Unfortunately, this city is no longer on the affordable list: thanks to the exodus from Seattle, homes are now running around $935,892!  

Seattle Housing Market Forecast Recap:

The market is still hot, driven by low inventory and buyer demand despite high home prices and mortgage rates. In 2024, expect to see gradual increases in home prices and dipping mortgage rates. It’s to be hoped that affordability will eventually come back into balance before 2024 is over.

Disclaimer: This article contains housing-related predictions that are based on current conditions, and those conditions could change over time. These forecasts are the equivalent of an educated guess and should not be viewed as certainties.

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