Mortgage Rates This Week – June 12, 2025

Mortgage rates are once again moving lower this week, a trend that was briefly derailed by last Friday’s surprisingly strong BLS jobs report. The 30-year fixed is at 6.000%, 6.219% APR with points, or 6.625%, 6.638% APR with no points for top-tier borrowers putting 25% down with 780+ credit.

While most economists continue to worry that tariffs will increase inflation, the economic data hasn’t provided a reason to worry. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed headline inflation rising just 0.1% in May, below estimates of 0.2%. Year-over-year inflation rose by 0.1% to 2.4%; however, this was below the 2.5% the market was expecting. The Core rate, which removes volatile food and energy prices, also increased by 0.1%, well below the 0.3% that the markets expected. Mortgage rates moved lower on the news, as this is the third CPI report in a row that has come in below expectations. We clearly see inflation was under control and without the threat of tariffs we would likely see the Fed in position to lower rates; however, given the uncertainty of when or if those tariffs will impact inflation the Fed has made it clear they will keep rates at current levels for as long as they possibly can.

Following yesterday’s CPI report, those in the tariffs equal inflation camp pointed to today’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for possible signs of inflation, as this report is often viewed as a leading indicator of future inflation; however, much like the CPI report, May’s PPI index showed headline inflation increasing by only 0.1%, below expectations and annual inflation coming in at 2.6%, which matched what the markets expected. Core inflation also rose 0.1%, with annual inflation at 3%. Both the CPI and PPI reports reflect a continued easing of inflation pressures, as the 3-month lookback the Fed has said they look at shows inflation below their 2% target.

Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reversed the trend of lower mortgage rates by showing that 139k jobs were created in May. This was above estimates of 125k jobs added and well above the ADP report, which showed only 37k jobs added. Although the headline number was strong, the previous two months were revised lower by 95k jobs, yet another example of the BLS reporting initial numbers that are way higher than reality. While the BLS report has proven time and time again to be overstated, the markets continue to react to the headline reports as rates shot higher on the news. While the BLS adjusts its reports in subsequent months, the QCEW also looks back and updates the BLS data. They released their Q4 report showing the BLS overstated job growth by over 500k beyond the BLS’s own downward revisions. We can only wonder where rates would be if the BLS reported accurate job growth in their initial reports.

While the BLS continues to show a resilient job market, other employment data has started to weaken. Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 248k, rising for the third week in a row. Meanwhile, continuing claims rose to the highest since 2021 at 1.96 M. If you assume BLS will once again revise their report lower in the coming months and you look at ADP along with weekly jobless claims, the once resilient jobs market may finally be starting to crack. If this trend continues, it may force the hand of the Fed to finally lower rates, especially if inflation remains tame as the economy slows from tariff uncertainty.

At the end of May, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, PCE, showed headline inflation rising 0.1% in April and dropping to 2.1% from 2.3% year over year. The core rate also increased by 0.1%, while the annual inflation rate decreased to 2.5%. This month’s PCE report will be one to watch, as CPI showed lower housing inflation, and the inputs PCE shares with PPI also came in tame. The inflation reports in the coming months will likely have an increasing impact on rates as the impact of tariffs on inflation will move away from theory and reflect in actual data.

Spring Buying Season

Buyer demand remains strong as we enter the back half of the spring buying season. Fully underwritten pre-approvals are essential to win offers in this competitive market, especially as rates hover near the week’s lows.

To find the most affordable rate, compare different lenders and collaborate with a company that offers transparent mortgage rates and costs online. Experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers can guide you through the current market conditions and chart the most effective course forward.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
06/14/2025

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before moving on to additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) May= 0.1% – Annual = 2.4%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) May = 0.1% – Annual = 2.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) April = 0.1% – Annual = 2.1% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2025

Loan limits have increased for 2025. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $806,500, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,037,300 for 1-unit properties in 2024.

Visit our 2025 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California,, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.

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