Mortgage Rates This Week – March 6, 2024

Mortgage rates are lower this week as the markets await Friday’s BLS Jobs Report.  The 30-year fixed rate currently sits at 5.875%, 6.126% APR with points, and 6.625%, 6.661% APR with 0 points for borrowers with excellent credit and 25% down on a Single Family Primary Residence.

This week is all about employment, and today, we got the February ADP Employment report, which showed 140,000 jobs created last month, below the 150,000 jobs expected. Rates moved lower on the news as this report, similar to January’s report, showed a significantly less robust jobs picture than last month’s BLS report. Over the past several months, ADP has consistently shown fewer jobs created than BLS, and while some feel ADP is the more accurate of the two, both the bond and stock markets tend to trade more on BLS than ADP.

Friday’s report will be crucial for those hoping for lower rates this spring. If the report shows that the 350k+ jobs created in January were a one-off, rates could push lower; however, if we get another blowout number, expect to see a return of higher rates as the markets recalibrate their expectations of future Fed rate cuts.

Also helping rates today was the ISM Services Index for February, which fell to 52.6 from 53.4. More importantly, the report showed that prices paid fell 5.4 points to 58.6, which is a positive sign for inflation as the services sector has been one of the hottest components of inflation in recent months.

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Last week, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed inflation rose 0.3% in January, which was in line with expectations. The year-over-year reading declined from 2.6% to 2.4%. The core rate removing food and energy prices rose 0.4%, also in line with expectations, and the annual rate fell to 2.8%, down from 2.9%. If you annualize the last six months of core PCE readings, which Chairman Powell said the Fed looks at, the rate increased to 2.46% from 1.85%. While this report didn’t show inflation coming down like most hoped, it wasn’t as bad as the CPI and PPI reports that came out earlier in the month. As a result, rates moved slightly lower as the markets breathed a sigh of relief.

After a blowout BLS jobs report for January, rates continued to increase after the CPI and PPI inflation reports surprised the markets, showing inflation rising more than expected. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed overall inflation rising 0.3% for the month and dropping from 3.4% to 3.1% year over year. Both numbers were hotter than the markets were expecting. Additionally, the more closely watched core rate, which removes volatile food and energy costs, increased by 0.4% in January, and the year-over-year rate remained flat at 3.9%, both of which were worse than the market expected. The bond markets reacted immediately, pushing rates up .25% shortly after the report’s release. Expectations of a Fed rate cut have now been pushed into summer as worries that inflation could heat up again increase.

Adding pressure to rates following the CPI report was the Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which measures producer inflation rising 0.3% in January, higher than the 0.1% expected by the markets. Year-over-year inflation declined from 1.0% to 0.9%, which was also worse than the expectations of 0.6%. The core rate rose 0.5%, significantly higher than the expected 0.1% increase.

Helping limit the damage from last week’s inflation data was Retail Sales, which declined much more than expected, down -0.8% in January vs. the expected decline of 0.1%.  Core Retail Sales also missed down 0.4% compared to estimates of a 0.2% increase. Outside of COVID, retail sales have grown at the slowest annual pace since 2019. As the US consumer continues to rack up record debt levels, many are looking for signs the consumer is finally tapped out. This report is one sign consumer spending may slow and is a trend to watch in the coming months.

MBS Highway, a paid service we use to monitor and advise on mortgage rates, released their 2024 forecast for mortgage rates and home appreciation. In the forecast, they predicted there was a strong possibility that mortgage rates would move to around 5.5% this year and could continue to move lower in 2025 and 2026. While predicting rates is incredibly difficult and subject to variability due to unforeseen factors, MBS Highway’s track record has proven to be more accurate than most. Additionally, they expect housing appreciation to rise again this year, although at a more modest pace of around 5%. Last year, they predicted appreciation would come in around 6.8%, which is right where appreciation ended up for 2023.

To embark on your quest for the lowest possible rate, consider comparing different lenders and collaborating with a company that offers transparent mortgage rates and costs online. Experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers can guide you through the current market conditions and chart the best course forward.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
03/18/2024

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Loan Programs Rate APR
Conforming 30-year fixed 6.125% 6.357%
Conforming 15-year fixed 5.375% 5.811%
Conforming 7/1 ARM 5.875% 7.207%
Jumbo 30 year fixed 6.250% 6.510%

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Loan Programs Rate APR
Conforming 30-year fixed 6.000% 6.264%
Conforming 15-year fixed 5.375% 5.787%
Conforming 7/1 ARM 5.875% 7.192%
Jumbo 30 year fixed 6.250% 6.510%

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Loan Programs Rate APR
Conforming 30-year fixed 6.000% 6.269%
Conforming 15-year fixed 5.375% 5.790%
Conforming 7/1 ARM 5.875% 7.192%
Jumbo 30 year fixed 6.250% 6.510%

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

Loan Programs Rate APR
Conforming 30-year fixed 6.000% 6.269%
Conforming 15-year fixed 5.375% 5.801%
Conforming 7/1 ARM 5.875% 7.204%
Jumbo 30 year fixed 6.250% 6.510%

California Mortgage Rates

Loan Programs Rate APR
Conforming 30-year fixed 6.125% 6.353%
Conforming 15-year fixed 5.375% 5.810%
Conforming 7/1 ARM 5.875% 7.206%
Jumbo 30 year fixed 6.250% 6.510%

National Average Mortgage Rates:

Loan ProgramsRate
30-year fixed mortgage rate6.66%
20-year fixed mortgage rate6.39%
15-year fixed mortgage rate5.92%
10-year fixed mortgage rate6.02%
30-year jumbo mortgage rate6.94%
5/1 adjustable mortgage rate6.67%

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is running well above the Fed’s annual target of 2%, pushing the Fed’s hand to raise short-term rates to slow things down. While current numbers remain elevated, we expect a significant reduction in the inflation readings in the coming months as various factors moderate the pace of inflation.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) January = 0.3% – Annual = 3.1%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) January = 0.3% – Annual = 0.9%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) December= 0.3% – Annual = 2.4% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

FOMC Meeting DateRate Change (bps)Federal Funds Rate
July 26, 2023+255.25% to 5.50%
May 03, 2023+255.00% to 5.25%
March 22, 2023+254.75% to 5.0%
February 2, 2023+254.50% to 4.75%
December 14, 2022+505.0% to 5.25%
November 2, 2022+754.5% to 4.75%
October 12, 2022+753.75% to 4.00%
Sept 21, 2022+753.00% to 3.25%
July 27, 2022+752.25% to 2.5%
June 16, 2022+751.5% to 1.75%
May 5, 2022+500.75% to 1.00%
March 17, 2022+250.25% to 0.50%

Loan Limits Increased For 2024

Loan limits have increased for 2024. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $766,550, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,149,825 for 1-unit properties in 2024.

Visit our 2024 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California,, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits for 2024, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.

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