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Mortgage Rates – January 13, 2014

What’s Ahead For Mortgage Rates This Week – January 13, 2014The first post-holiday week of 2014 brought mixed economic and housing-related news. CoreLogic reported via its Housing Market Index that November home prices grew by 11.80 percent year-over-year.

This was just shy of October’s year-over-year reading of 11.90 percent. As with Case-Shiller’s recently reported Home Price Indices, a slower rate of home price growth suggested to analysts that the housing market is cooling down.

The Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee released the minutes from its December meeting. The minutes reiterated the Committee’s decision to begin tapering its asset purchases this month.

The Fed announced that it would reduce its monthly asset purchases by $10 billion to $75 billion. As always, the Fed indicated that it would continue monitoring economic data for determining future actions concerning monetary policy.

Employment, Unemployment Data Mixed

The week’s jobs-related readings provided mixed readings for the labor sector. The ADP Employment report for December showed 238,000 private sector jobs added and matched expectations of 215,000 new private sector jobs. December’s reading also exceeded November’s reading of 229,000 jobs added.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Non-Farm Payrolls report for December; it reported 74,000 jobs added in December against expectations of 193,000 new jobs and November’s reading of 241,000 jobs added.

The sharp drop in new jobs during December was partially blamed on poor weather, but analysts also said that it could be a sign of further ups and downs in the U.S. economy.

In a statement given in connection with the December Non-Farm Payrolls report, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard, a member of the FOMC, said that he did not expect the Fed to stop tapering its asset purchases due to December’s sharp drop in new jobs.

The national unemployment rate improved to a reading of 6.70 percent. This was the lowest reading in five years and only two-tenths of a percent above the FOMC’s targeted unemployment rate of 6.50 percent. 347,000 workers left the workforce, which helps to explain the discrepancy between the lower number of new jobs and the lower unemployment rate.

This Week

Several reports are set for release regarding inflation. Import Prices, CPI and PPI are expected to show virtually no inflation across the board. Retail sales will also be release on Tuesday.

What is on the agenda for this week?

DateTime (ET)Economic ReleaseActualMarket ExpectsPrior
13-Jan2:00 PMTreasury Budget+$44.0B-$1.2B
14-Jan8:30 AMRetail Sales0.00%0.70%
14-Jan8:30 AMRetail Sales ex-auto0.40%0.40%
14-Jan8:30 AMExport Prices ex-ag.NA0.10%
14-Jan8:30 AMImport Prices ex-oilNA0.00%
14-Jan10:00 AMBusiness Inventories0.30%0.70%
15-Jan7:00 AMMBA Mortgage IndexNA2.60%
15-Jan8:30 AMPPI0.30%-0.10%
15-Jan8:30 AMCore PPI0.10%0.10%
15-Jan8:30 AMEmpire Manufacturing3.51
15-Jan10:30 AMCrude InventoriesNA-2.675M
15-Jan2:00 PMFed’s Beige Book
16-Jan8:30 AMInitial Claims333K330K
16-Jan8:30 AMContinuing Claims2835K2865K
16-Jan8:30 AMCPI0.30%0.00%
16-Jan8:30 AMCore CPI0.20%0.20%
16-Jan9:00 AMNet Long-Term TIC FlowsNA$35.4B
16-Jan10:00 AMPhiladelphia Fed86.4
16-Jan10:00 AMNAHB Housing Market Index5758
16-Jan10:30 AMNatural Gas InventoriesNA-157 bcf
17-Jan8:30 AMHousing Starts986K1091K
17-Jan8:30 AMBuilding Permits1000K1007K
17-Jan9:15 AMIndustrial Production0.30%1.10%
17-Jan9:15 AMCapacity Utilization79.10%79.00%
17-Jan9:55 AMMich Sentiment8382.5
17-Jan10:00 AMJOLTS – Job OpeningsNA3.925M

 

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