Mortgage Rates This Week – September 4, 2025

Mortgage rates hit fresh new lows for 2025 today, following three weak employment reports; however, tomorrow we get the most critical report as far as rates are concerned, with the BLS Non-Farm Payroll Report. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.625%, 5.841% APR with 2.190points; or 6.250%, 6.263% APR with 0 points for top-tier borrowers putting 25% down with 780+ credit. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 4.625%, 4.988% APR with 2.245 points; or 5.500%, 5.521% APR with 0 points.

Validating last month’s extremely weak BLS jobs report, we’ve had multiple reports the past two days showing a weakening labor market. The ADP Employment Report showed only 54,000 job gains in August, below the 75,000 expected. According to ADP, the three-month average of job gains is now at 46,000 vs. 120,000 over the past year. Employees who stayed at their current jobs saw wage increases decline, rising 4.4% annually from 4.5% last month, and the lowest since June 2021. Additionally, workers are averaging two fewer hours worked per week than before the pandemic, indicating employers are cutting hours instead of laying off workers. While not a good sign for the economy, it can explain why we haven’t seen a dramatic increase in weekly jobless claims over the past few months. While Initial Jobless Claims aren’t spiking higher, they did increase to 237,000 this week, up 8,000 from last week.

Yesterday, the July JOLTS report showed job openings falling by almost 200k to 7.181M, 219,000 openings below estimates. The hiring rate remained extremely low at 3.3%, the second lowest level since 2013, excluding COVID. This reinforces the sentiment that while we’re not seeing mass layoffs, those looking for a job find it challenging. While these three reports have helped rates move lower, tomorrow’s BLS report will dictate the direction of rates in the coming weeks. As we’ve seen in the past, the rate markets put far more weight into the BLS report than they do ADP or JOLTS, even with the BLS consistently over-reporting job growth over the past two years, only to have the initial numbers revised lower in subsequent months. Adding to the intrigue, this month’s BLS jobs report and CPI inflation report will be the first since President Trump fired the head of the BLS. If the reports contradict the August numbers and show a strong labor market and soft inflation, will the markets trust the data?

Last week, the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, PCE, came in at expectations rising 0.2% in July, while year-over-year inflation rose 2.6%. The core rate, which removes volatile food and energy costs, rose 0.3% and 2.9% year over year, also in line with expectations. Rates moved slightly higher on the news as it validated what we saw earlier in the month with the CPI and PPI inflation reports. Inflation is rising due to tariffs, but the question remains: Will the rise be temporary, as many, including the Trump Administration, expect?

Before PCE, mortgage rates dropped sharply following Chairman Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, indicating that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates in September. While the market was already expecting a Fed rate cut, Powell was more cautious on the labor market following the last BLS jobs report and reiterated that he expects inflation related to the tariffs to be a one-time adjustment, not an ongoing issue.

Earlier in August, the July CPI report showed overall inflation rising 0.2% for the month and year-over-year inflation flat at 2.7%, which aligned with expectations. Energy prices declined, helping overall inflation remain stable for the month. The Core inflation rate, removing food and energy prices, increased by 0.3%, slightly higher than expected. Annually, the core rate rose from 2.9% to 3.1%, hotter than expected. Rates moved slightly higher on the news, as this is the second consecutive CPI report showing increasing inflation. While these inflation numbers aren’t hot, they are above the Fed’s 2% target, and components within the report show potential signs that tariffs are having a negative impact on prices. However, the move higher in rates was minimal, as fears that the tariffs will cause another round of out-of-control inflation like we saw post-pandemic are easing.

The July PPI report showed wholesale inflation surprised the markets, coming in much hotter than expected. Both the headline and core rose 0.9% for the month, reflecting the first definitive signs that tariffs are making their way into the inflation data. The report released this morning has pushed rates up; however, thus far, the impact has been less than expected as the markets put more weight into softening employment. While PPI doesn’t impact rates as much as CPI and the Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, PCE, components of this report feed into PCE, which will be released later this month and could have a bigger impact on rates.

Summer Buying Season

As we exit the typical summer buying season, demand among home buyers is picking up, likely due to lower rates compared to early summer and spring. Fully underwritten pre-approvals are crucial for securing offers in this highly competitive market, particularly as interest rates dip.

To get the best possible rate, it is recommended that you compare lenders and work with a firm that provides transparent mortgage rates and associated costs online. At Sammamish Mortgage, knowledgeable and experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers are available to assist you in navigating the current market landscape and determining the best path ahead.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
09/10/2025

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before moving on to additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) July= 0.2% – Annual = 2.7%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) July = 0.9% – Annual = 3.3%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) July = 0.2% – Annual = 2.6% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2025

Loan limits have increased for 2025. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $806,500, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,037,300 for 1-unit properties in 2024.

Visit our 2025 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California,, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.

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