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Mortgage rates dipped this week, hitting the lowest levels since early April. Easing oil prices resulting from the de-escalation between Iran and Israel and favorable comments about future rate cuts from two key Fed Governors helped push rates lower. The 30-year fixed at the time of this post is 5.875%, 6.098% APR with 2.230 points; or 6.500%, 6.513% APR with 0 points for top-tier borrowers putting 25% down with 780+ credit. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 4.875%, 5.272% APR with 2.445 points; or 5.750%, 5.771% APR with 0 points.
Bank deregulation took another step forward as the Federal Reserve proposed a rollback of bank capital requirements. The move would lower reserve thresholds and allow banks to buy treasuries without negatively impacting their lending ability. Once implemented, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects this change could push 10-year treasury rates down “10’s of basis points,” which, if true, would help lower mortgage rates by a significant amount.
The main focus of the Fed and bond markets lately has been employment and today Initial Jobless Claims fell to 236k from 246k last week, which was lower than expected. Rates didn’t move higher on the news as Continuing Claims, which measures those continuing to receive unemployment after their initial claim, rose to 1.974 M, the highest level since COVID. This shows that while layoffs aren’t spiking, those who don’t have a job are finding it increasingly difficult to get a new job.
While a worsening jobs market could be the key to lower mortgage rates, inflation still remains a hurdle, given increased inflation expectations as a result of tariffs. So far, there has been little to no impact on inflation data since the tariffs were enacted. The Fed’s favorite measure of inflation, Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), will be released tomorrow, which could significantly impact rates. If the numbers come in at or below expectations, we expect rates to continue their rally and move lower; however, an upside surprise could cause rates to shoot higher as hope for a Fed rate cut in the coming months would likely be off the table.
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The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady in last week’s FOMC meeting, though top Federal Reserve officials have indicated support for potential rate cuts at next month’s meeting.
Some top central bankers are questioning the impact of tariffs on inflation, while underscoring the potential risks associated with a weakening labor market. Some are concerned about waiting until the job market deteriorates before implementing policy rate cuts.
While the Federal Reserve doesn’t set interest rates for mortgages directly, its decisions — like cutting its benchmark rate — indirectly shape what banks charge through the prime rate, which acts as a baseline that financial institutions use to determine rates on various lending products.
The third and final reading for Q1 GDP showed the economy contracted 0.5% annually in Q1, which was worse than the -.2% reading from the second revision. Weaker government spending and a surge in import stockpiling ahead of tariffs impacted the updated GDP reading. Mortgage rates eased on the news as details in the report, including consumer spending, were weaker than expected. Q2 2025 figures are set to be released on July 30, 2025.
As we enter the summer buying season, demand among home buyers remains high. Fully underwritten pre-approvals are crucial for securing offers in this highly competitive market, particularly as interest rates dip.
To get the best possible rate, comparing lenders and working with a firm that provides transparent mortgage rates and associated costs online is recommended. At Sammamish Mortgage, knowledgeable and experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers are available to assist you in navigating the current market landscape and determining the best path ahead.
**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.083% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.875% | 5.248% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.375% | 6.413% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.000% | 6.211% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.082% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.875% | 5.265% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.375% | 6.415% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.000% | 6.211% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.085% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.875% | 5.251% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.375% | 6.415% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.000% | 6.211% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.087% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.875% | 5.251% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.500% | 6.447% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.000% | 6.211% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.093% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.875% | 5.259% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.500% | 6.447% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.106% |
| Loan Programs | Rate |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.79% |
| 20-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.62% |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.10% |
| 10-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.12% |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 6.20% |
| 5/1 adjustable mortgage rate | 5.92% |
(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)
Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before moving on to additional rate cuts.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) May= 0.1% – Annual = 2.4%
Producer Price Index (PPI) May = 0.1% – Annual = 2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) April = 0.1% – Annual = 2.1%
Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.
For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.
For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.
A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.
| FOMC Meeting Date | Rate Change (bps) | Federal Funds Rate |
| January 29, 2025 | -25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| December 18, 2024 | -25 | 4.25% to 4.50% |
| November 7, 2024 | -25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| September 18, 2024 | -50 | 4.75% to 5.00% |
| July 26, 2023 | +25 | 5.25% to 5.50% |
| May 03, 2023 | +25 | 5.00% to 5.25% |
| March 22, 2023 | +25 | 4.75% to 5.0% |
| February 2, 2023 | +25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| December 14, 2022 | +50 | 5.0% to 5.25% |
| November 2, 2022 | +75 | 4.5% to 4.75% |
| October 12, 2022 | +75 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Sept 21, 2022 | +75 | 3.00% to 3.25% |
| July 27, 2022 | +75 | 2.25% to 2.5% |
| June 16, 2022 | +75 | 1.5% to 1.75% |
| May 5, 2022 | +50 | 0.75% to 1.00% |
| March 17, 2022 | +25 | 0.25% to 0.50% |
Loan limits have increased for 2025. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $806,500, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,037,300 for 1-unit properties in 2024.
Visit our 2025 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California,, and Colorado.
For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California and Oregon.
Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.
Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.
Whether you’re buying a home or ready to refinance, our professionals can help.
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No Obligation and transparency 24/7. Instantly compare live rates and costs from our network of lenders across the country. Real-time accurate rates and closing costs for a variety of loan programs custom to your specific situation.