No Obligation and transparency 24/7. Instantly compare live rates and costs from our network of lenders across the country. Real-time accurate rates and closing costs for a variety of loan programs custom to your specific situation.
Offering many a second chance at refinancing or locking in a low rate on a purchase, mortgage rates have moved lower this week, reversing an upward trend following the Fed’s 0.25% rate cut in September. While we’re not at the lows we saw before the Fed rate cut, rates moving lower is a sign of relief for those who thought they missed their opportunity. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.500%, with a 5.700% APR and 2.044 points, or 6.000%, with a 6.015% APR and 0 points, for top-tier borrowers putting 25% down and having a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 4.625%, with a 4.988% APR and 2.248 points; or 5.500%, with a 5.519% APR and 0 points.
The first week of the month is typically marked by significant volatility due to the release of the critical monthly jobs report; however, Congress has thrown us a curveball, as we won’t receive any economic data produced by the government during the shutdown. Without today’s weekly jobless claims and tomorrow’s BLS Non-Farm Payroll report, the markets are focused on reports that generally don’t get a lot of headlines for guidance. The ADP Employment Report for September showed a loss of 32,000 jobs, significantly weaker than the 50,000 jobs that were expected to be added. Additionally, the August reading was revised downward, resulting in three of the last four reports showing negative job growth. Today, the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas Job Cuts report came in extremely weak, with planned layoffs year to date the highest since COVID, while hiring plans are the lowest since 2009.
Get the latest updates right to your inbox
It’s clear that the job market is in decline, but it will be interesting to see how markets move over the coming days or weeks without the normal data that markets rely on. If the BLS report were released and showed similar numbers to those from ADP, mortgage rates would likely drop a lot more than they have. While we are seeing rates fall as a result of the ADP report, the move is not as big as we would expect from a report showing negative job growth. If the government shutdown lasts longer than expected, will the markets care when the data is finally released, or will they dismiss the readings as old data?
The next potential market-moving news is inflation data expected mid-month; however, both the CPI and PPI reports are released by the BLS, which means no reports will be issued if the government shutdown is still in effect. If the shutdown lasts beyond a few days and extends to multiple weeks, there is concern that its impact could be seen in a decline of GDP and the job market. It’s difficult to predict the exact effect on rates, but some believe this could help rates move lower.
On Friday, we saw the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, PCE, show inflation increasing by 0.3% in August, with year-over-year inflation rising 0.1% to 2.7%. Both were slightly above forecasts. Core PCE, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and stayed flat year over year at 2.9%. Overall, the report showed what we all know: inflation is elevated but not spiralling out of control due to the tariffs. Unfortunately, the report didn’t help reverse the upward trend in mortgage rates as rates moved to their highest levels since early September.
Rates, which have been moving lower over the past few months, have had an impact on the housing market, as both new and existing home sales rose significantly more than expected. As we’ve seen many times over the past few years, when the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate pushes below 6.5% and heads down towards 6%, home sales and activity spike. Unfortunately, since 2022, these dips in rates have been short-lived. However, heading into winter, some are more optimistic that rates will remain lower this time around due to improved mortgage spreads and a weakening labor market. Mortgage spreads between the 10-year treasury yield and mortgage-backed securities have improved significantly in 2025 and are working their way down to normal levels. This should help keep rates from spiking, as we saw in late 2024. If we’re lucky, it could also help us break below 6% if the economy continues to slow and the Fed moves to a more accommodative policy.
As expected, the Fed cut rates by 0.25% at its September meeting, a move that was already priced into the bond market. The initial move lower following the rate cut was due to the statement indicating that the Fed expects two more rate cuts later this year, as well as the acknowledgement that the labor market is weakening. However, the move lower was minimal, as the statement also stated that inflation has increased and remains elevated. While the forecast of two more rate cuts this year was more than the markets expected, the Fed reduced the number of forecasted cuts in 2026 to one 0.25% reduction. The big disappointment for the rate markets and the primary cause for rates moving higher was Powell’s comments on the labor market during his press conference, when he indicated that zero job growth doesn’t warrant accommodative action from the Fed due to declining population growth. Many are interpreting these comments to suggest that the labor market would have to experience significant nationwide job losses before the Fed would shift its restrictive policy.
As we enter fall, demand among home buyers is staying strong, likely due to lower rates compared to the summer and spring. Fully underwritten pre-approvals are crucial for securing offers in this highly competitive market, particularly as interest rates dip.
To get the best possible rate, it is recommended that you compare lenders and work with a firm that provides transparent mortgage rates and associated costs online. At Sammamish Mortgage, knowledgeable and experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers are available to assist you in navigating the current market landscape and determining the best path ahead.
**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.700% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.625% | 4.967% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 4.875% | 6.149% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.833% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.703% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.625% | 4.970% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 4.875% | 6.154% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.833% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.701% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.625% | 4.976% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 4.875% | 6.151% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.833% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.704% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.625% | 4.975% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 4.875% | 6.158% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.833% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.710% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.625% | 4.967% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 4.875% | 6.162% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.794% |
| Loan Programs | Rate |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.79% |
| 20-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.62% |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.10% |
| 10-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.12% |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 6.20% |
| 5/1 adjustable mortgage rate | 5.92% |
(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)
Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before moving on to additional rate cuts.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) August= 0.4% – Annual = 2.9%
Producer Price Index (PPI) August = -0.1% – Annual = 2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Augus = 0.3% – Annual = 2.7%
Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.
For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.
For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.
A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.
| FOMC Meeting Date | Rate Change (bps) | Federal Funds Rate |
| January 29, 2025 | -25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| December 18, 2024 | -25 | 4.25% to 4.50% |
| November 7, 2024 | -25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| September 18, 2024 | -50 | 4.75% to 5.00% |
| July 26, 2023 | +25 | 5.25% to 5.50% |
| May 03, 2023 | +25 | 5.00% to 5.25% |
| March 22, 2023 | +25 | 4.75% to 5.0% |
| February 2, 2023 | +25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| December 14, 2022 | +50 | 5.0% to 5.25% |
| November 2, 2022 | +75 | 4.5% to 4.75% |
| October 12, 2022 | +75 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Sept 21, 2022 | +75 | 3.00% to 3.25% |
| July 27, 2022 | +75 | 2.25% to 2.5% |
| June 16, 2022 | +75 | 1.5% to 1.75% |
| May 5, 2022 | +50 | 0.75% to 1.00% |
| March 17, 2022 | +25 | 0.25% to 0.50% |
Loan limits have increased for 2025. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $806,500, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,037,300 for 1-unit properties in 2024.
Visit our 2025 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.
For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.
Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.
Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.
Mortgage rates fluctuate daily and depend on the type of loan, term length, and your individual financial situation. For the most up-to-date and personalized rates, reach out directly to your lender.
Several factors affect mortgage rates, including inflation, central bank decisions, the demand for mortgage-backed securities, and general economic trends. Your own credit rating, loan size, and down payment will also impact the rate you’re offered.
Typically, borrowers with credit scores of 740 or above receive the most favorable rates. Those with scores above 620 still qualify for many programs, but may see slightly higher rates. Government-backed FHA and VA loans may accept lower scores.
While your earnings don’t directly set your rate, they do influence your debt-to-income ratio. A lower ratio shows lenders you’re a safer bet, which can help you secure better rates.
You can often qualify, but the rate will likely be higher. Raising your credit score, increasing your down payment, or exploring FHA loans can help offset lender risk and improve your rate.
The interest rate only reflects what you pay to borrow the principal, while the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) includes both the interest rate and additional fees, offering a more complete picture of your total costs.
Jumbo loans—meant for higher-value properties—often carry slightly higher rates due to the greater risk for lenders, though well-qualified borrowers may find rates similar to standard conforming loans.
Government-backed loans, like FHA, VA, and USDA, frequently offer lower interest rates and more lenient credit requirements. For example, VA loans are known for their especially low rates for qualified veterans.
ARMs can be advantageous if you expect to move or refinance before the fixed-rate period ends. However, be mindful that payments may rise if interest rates go up in the future.
A rate lock means your lender guarantees your quoted rate for a certain period—often 30 to 60 days—shielding you from increases while your loan is processed.
Unless your lender offers a float-down provision, you’ll keep your locked rate even if market rates drop. Some lenders may allow renegotiation, but it depends on their specific policies.
Yes, purchasing points—where one point equals 1% of your loan amount—can reduce your interest rate. This can save you money if you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup the upfront cost.
Discount points allow you to prepay interest to secure a lower rate. They’re most beneficial for borrowers intending to keep their mortgage over the long term.
Yes, making additional payments toward your principal balance will cut down the interest you pay and can help you pay off your mortgage sooner.
Yes, there are special loan programs with features like lower down payments, reduced rates, or down payment assistance for first-time buyers.
Yes, but requirements are often stricter, and you may need a larger down payment and a higher credit score compared to a primary residence.
Refinancing is worth considering if you can secure a rate at least 0.5% to 1% below your current one, and you plan to stay in your home long enough to recover closing costs.
Yes, refinancing into a fixed-rate loan is a common strategy for ARM holders seeking more predictable payments before a rate adjustment.
Yes. Sammamish Mortgage provides up-to-date rates and transparent costs directly on their website, allowing you to compare options confidently and without hidden fees.
Sammamish Mortgage distinguishes itself with upfront online rate and fee transparency, $1 lender fees, and access to a wide array of loan products. All underwriting is handled in-house, leading to faster processing and approvals compared to many larger institutions.
Whether you’re buying a home or ready to refinance, our professionals can help.
{hours_open} - {hours_closed} Pacific
No Obligation and transparency 24/7. Instantly compare live rates and costs from our network of lenders across the country. Real-time accurate rates and closing costs for a variety of loan programs custom to your specific situation.