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With the government shutdown now pushing past the one-month mark, mortgage rates are struggling to maintain the low levels seen over the past couple of months, drifting higher as virtually no significant economic data has been released. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.500%, with a 5.680% APR and 1.826 points, or 6.000%, with a 6.012% APR and 0 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 4.625%, with a 5.022% APR and 2.459 points; or 5.500%, with a 5.534% APR and 0 points.
Over the past two days, we have seen rates wip-saw higher yesterday and then back down today, driven by two reports that would typically have little market impact but are influencing rates, as none of the big economic reports are due due to the government shutdown. Yesterday, the ADP employment report showed weak but better-than-expected job growth, with 42,000 jobs added in October. Typically, a number this low would help rates; however, recent comments from the Fed indicate that they view any job growth as acceptable, given the decline in labor participation driven by current immigration policies. Contrary to yesterday’s ADP report, the Challenger Job Cuts Report today showed 153,000 job cut announcements in October, the highest number for October in 22 years. Year-to-date, there have been over 1 million job cuts announced. Hiring plans are also down 35% from the same time last year, and the year-to-date hiring reading is the lowest since 2011. Again, both of these reports typically take a back seat to the BLS jobs report, which we would generally see tomorrow, if not for the government shutdown.
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The only economic report we’ve received from the government since the shutdown was from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which released the Consumer Price Index for September two weeks ago. BLS workers were required to return to work to complete the CPI inflation report for September, as this report is crucial for Social Security, as benefit increases are tied to the CPI and are necessary to update payments for 2026. The CPI report showed inflation rose 0.3% in September and annual inflation was up 3.0%, both 0.1% cooler than the markets expected. The Core inflation rate, which removed volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.2% for the month and 3.0% for the year, also 0.1% below market expectations.
As expected, the Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 0.25% in October; however, rates moved higher during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference following the rate cut announcement on comments about the potential for a December rate cut. While the markets were predicting over a 90% chance of a Fed cut in December, when asked about cutting at their next meeting, Powell said a cut was “not a foregone conclusion – far from it.” Treasuries and Mortgage Backed Securities immediately sold off, pushing rates higher. Regardless of how weak many feel the labor market is, it’s clear that the Fed needs to see the labor market break with layoffs shooting higher and the unemployment rate rising before it will shift from a restrictive to an accommodative or even neutral monetary policy.
Until the government shutdown ends and all the normal economic data are released, it’s clear that the Fed will be put on hold and wait to lower rates until the economic data makes it impossible to justify keeping rates at current levels.
With fall upon us and winter coming, demand among home buyers is staying strong, as rates remain near the lows for the year. Fully underwritten pre-approvals are crucial for securing offers in this highly competitive market, particularly as interest rates dip.
To get the best possible rate, it is recommended that you compare lenders and work with a firm that provides transparent mortgage rates and associated costs online. At Sammamish Mortgage, knowledgeable and experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers are available to assist you in navigating the current market landscape and determining the best path ahead.
**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.680% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.750% | 5.104% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.202% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.943% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.375% | 5.616% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.750% | 5.101% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.209% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.943% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.682% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.750% | 5.101% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.204% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.943% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.685% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.750% | 5.097% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.211% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.943% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.690% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.750% | 5.116% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.215% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.726% |
| Loan Programs | Rate |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.79% |
| 20-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.62% |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.10% |
| 10-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.12% |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 6.20% |
| 5/1 adjustable mortgage rate | 5.92% |
(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)
Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before moving on to additional rate cuts.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) September = 0.3% – Annual = 3.0%
Producer Price Index (PPI) August = -0.1% – Annual = 2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) August = 0.3% – Annual = 2.7%
Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.
For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.
For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.
A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.
| FOMC Meeting Date | Rate Change (bps) | Federal Funds Rate |
| January 29, 2025 | -25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| December 18, 2024 | -25 | 4.25% to 4.50% |
| November 7, 2024 | -25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| September 18, 2024 | -50 | 4.75% to 5.00% |
| July 26, 2023 | +25 | 5.25% to 5.50% |
| May 03, 2023 | +25 | 5.00% to 5.25% |
| March 22, 2023 | +25 | 4.75% to 5.0% |
| February 2, 2023 | +25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| December 14, 2022 | +50 | 5.0% to 5.25% |
| November 2, 2022 | +75 | 4.5% to 4.75% |
| October 12, 2022 | +75 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Sept 21, 2022 | +75 | 3.00% to 3.25% |
| July 27, 2022 | +75 | 2.25% to 2.5% |
| June 16, 2022 | +75 | 1.5% to 1.75% |
| May 5, 2022 | +50 | 0.75% to 1.00% |
| March 17, 2022 | +25 | 0.25% to 0.50% |
Loan limits have increased for 2025. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $806,500, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,037,300 for 1-unit properties in 2024.
Visit our 2025 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.
For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.
Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.
Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.
Mortgage rates fluctuate daily and depend on the type of loan, term length, and your individual financial situation. For the most up-to-date and personalized rates, reach out directly to your lender.
Several factors affect mortgage rates, including inflation, central bank decisions, the demand for mortgage-backed securities, and general economic trends. Your own credit rating, loan size, and down payment will also impact the rate you’re offered.
Typically, borrowers with credit scores of 740 or above receive the most favorable rates. Those with scores above 620 still qualify for many programs, but may see slightly higher rates. Government-backed FHA and VA loans may accept lower scores.
While your earnings don’t directly set your rate, they do influence your debt-to-income ratio. A lower ratio shows lenders you’re a safer bet, which can help you secure better rates.
You can often qualify, but the rate will likely be higher. Raising your credit score, increasing your down payment, or exploring FHA loans can help offset lender risk and improve your rate.
The interest rate only reflects what you pay to borrow the principal, while the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) includes both the interest rate and additional fees, offering a more complete picture of your total costs.
Jumbo loans—meant for higher-value properties—often carry slightly higher rates due to the greater risk for lenders, though well-qualified borrowers may find rates similar to standard conforming loans.
Government-backed loans, like FHA, VA, and USDA, frequently offer lower interest rates and more lenient credit requirements. For example, VA loans are known for their especially low rates for qualified veterans.
ARMs can be advantageous if you expect to move or refinance before the fixed-rate period ends. However, be mindful that payments may rise if interest rates go up in the future.
A rate lock means your lender guarantees your quoted rate for a certain period—often 30 to 60 days—shielding you from increases while your loan is processed.
Unless your lender offers a float-down provision, you’ll keep your locked rate even if market rates drop. Some lenders may allow renegotiation, but it depends on their specific policies.
Yes, purchasing points—where one point equals 1% of your loan amount—can reduce your interest rate. This can save you money if you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup the upfront cost.
Discount points allow you to prepay interest to secure a lower rate. They’re most beneficial for borrowers intending to keep their mortgage over the long term.
Yes, making additional payments toward your principal balance will cut down the interest you pay and can help you pay off your mortgage sooner.
Yes, there are special loan programs with features like lower down payments, reduced rates, or down payment assistance for first-time buyers.
Yes, but requirements are often stricter, and you may need a larger down payment and a higher credit score compared to a primary residence.
Refinancing is worth considering if you can secure a rate at least 0.5% to 1% below your current one, and you plan to stay in your home long enough to recover closing costs.
Yes, refinancing into a fixed-rate loan is a common strategy for ARM holders seeking more predictable payments before a rate adjustment.
Yes. Sammamish Mortgage provides up-to-date rates and transparent costs directly on their website, allowing you to compare options confidently and without hidden fees.
Sammamish Mortgage distinguishes itself with upfront online rate and fee transparency, $1 lender fees, and access to a wide array of loan products. All underwriting is handled in-house, leading to faster processing and approvals compared to many larger institutions.
Whether you’re buying a home or ready to refinance, our professionals can help.
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No Obligation and transparency 24/7. Instantly compare live rates and costs from our network of lenders across the country. Real-time accurate rates and closing costs for a variety of loan programs custom to your specific situation.