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Mortgage rates were elevated for much of the past week before improving on Thursday, as the bond market continues to react to persistent inflation concerns and signs of weakness in the labor market. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 6.125%, with a 6.373% APR and 2.434 points, or 6.625% with a 6.663% APR and 0.246 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.500%, with a 5.895% APR and 2.366 points; or 6.125%, with a 6.193% APR and 0.284 points.
The bond market has remained under pressure as September begins, with investors continuing to weigh persistent inflation against signs of weakness in the labor market. Nationally, mortgage rates have also remained elevated, while longer-term Treasury yields continue to reflect concerns around inflation, government borrowing, and the outlook for Federal Reserve policy.
This week’s economic data have done little to resolve the Federal Reserve’s dilemma. August manufacturing activity slowed, with the ISM Manufacturing Index falling from July. New orders and employment also weakened, while measures of input prices remained elevated. The combination reinforces a theme that has become increasingly important for the Fed: parts of the economy are losing momentum, but inflationary pressures have not disappeared.
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The services side of the economy provided a somewhat different signal this week. Activity remained resilient, supported by continued demand, while employment indicators remained weaker. At the same time, businesses continued to report elevated price pressures. That combination captures the Fed’s current challenge particularly well: economic demand remains resilient in important parts of the economy, but hiring has weakened while inflation remains above the Fed’s target.
Attention now turns to the August employment report. July payrolls unexpectedly fell by 23,000, and prior months were revised lower, raising concerns that the labor market has weakened more substantially than previously thought. Another soft employment report would strengthen the argument against additional monetary tightening, while stronger-than-expected hiring could shift attention back toward inflation and put renewed upward pressure on Treasury yields.
For mortgage borrowers, the long end of the Treasury market remains the more immediate concern. Rates were higher for much of the week before improving Thursday, bringing the 30-year fixed rate back to 6.125%. However, the cost to obtain that rate increased from 1.976 points last Thursday to 2.434 points today. That distinction is important: even though the headline rate ended the week where it began, underlying mortgage pricing is less favorable than it was a week ago.
The September 15-16 FOMC meeting is now less than two weeks away, and the remaining employment and inflation reports will play a major role in determining the Fed’s next move. Markets continue to weigh the risk of persistent inflation against a labor market that has clearly lost momentum. Until one side of that equation becomes more decisive, mortgage rates are likely to remain volatile, with Treasury yields responding quickly to each major economic release.
As the housing market moves into the fall buying season, buyers are entering a different environment than they faced during the spring and summer. Mortgage rates remain elevated and have shown meaningful week-to-week and even day-to-day volatility. This week’s movement is a good example: rates were higher for much of the week before improving on Thursday. At the same time, the seasonal slowdown in housing activity can create opportunities for buyers who remain active, particularly as competition for available homes typically eases after the summer peak.
In Washington state specifically, increased inventory continues to give buyers more choices and negotiating leverage than they had during tighter markets in recent years. As fall approaches, motivated sellers may also become more willing to negotiate on price, closing costs, seller concessions, or rate buydowns. A fully underwritten pre-approval can strengthen an offer when the right property appears, while rate buydowns and 7/1 ARM products remain worth modeling for buyers with a defined time horizon. With mortgage rates and points both capable of changing quickly, comparing the full cost of different financing structures remains more useful than waiting for a specific headline rate.
**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.373% | 2.434 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.888% | 2.326 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.625% | 6.215% | 2.219 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.340% | 2.165 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.366% | 2.364 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.490% | 5.875% | 2.307 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.625% | 6.216% | 2.226 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.340% | 2.165 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.373% | 2.434 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.891% | 2.346 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.625% | 6.217% | 2.239 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.340% | 2.165 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.376% | 2.464 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.891% | 2.346 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.625% | 6.225% | 2.319 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.315% | 1.915 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.376% | 2.464 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.899% | 2.396 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.625% | 6.225% | 2.326 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 6.125% | 6.344% | 2.210 |
| Loan Programs | Rate |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.750% |
| 20-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.625% |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.000% |
| 10-year fixed mortgage rate | 6.000% |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 6.125% |
(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)
Inflation is undoubtedly the most significant driver of interest rates. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see in interest rates in the coming months. Inflation is re-accelerating above the Fed’s target of 2% as of March 2026. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before considering additional rate cuts.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) March = 0.9% – Annual = 3.3%
Producer Price Index (PPI) March = 0.5% – Annual = 4.0%
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.4% – Annual = 2.8%
Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.
For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.
For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.
A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.
| FOMC Meeting Date | Rate Change (bps) | Federal Funds Rate |
| July 29, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| June 17, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| April 29, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| March 18, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| January 28, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| December 10, 2025 | –25 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| October 29, 2025 | –25 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| September 17, 2025 | –25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| January 29, 2025 | -25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| December 18, 2024 | -25 | 4.25% to 4.50% |
| November 7, 2024 | -25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| September 18, 2024 | -50 | 4.75% to 5.00% |
| July 26, 2023 | +25 | 5.25% to 5.50% |
| May 03, 2023 | +25 | 5.00% to 5.25% |
| March 22, 2023 | +25 | 4.75% to 5.0% |
| February 2, 2023 | +25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| December 14, 2022 | +50 | 5.0% to 5.25% |
| November 2, 2022 | +75 | 4.5% to 4.75% |
| October 12, 2022 | +75 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Sept 21, 2022 | +75 | 3.00% to 3.25% |
| July 27, 2022 | +75 | 2.25% to 2.5% |
| June 16, 2022 | +75 | 1.5% to 1.75% |
| May 5, 2022 | +50 | 0.75% to 1.00% |
| March 17, 2022 | +25 | 0.25% to 0.50% |
Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.
Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.
For FHA loan limits, see our 2026 FHA pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.
Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.
Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, California & Colorado. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.
Mortgage rates fluctuate daily and depend on the type of loan, term length, and your individual financial situation. For the most up-to-date and personalized rates, reach out directly to your lender.
Several factors affect mortgage rates, including inflation, central bank decisions, the demand for mortgage-backed securities, and general economic trends. Your own credit rating, loan size, and down payment will also impact the rate you’re offered.
Typically, borrowers with credit scores of 740 or above receive the most favorable rates. Those with scores above 620 still qualify for many programs, but may see slightly higher rates. Government-backed FHA and VA loans may accept lower scores.
While your earnings don’t directly set your rate, they do influence your debt-to-income ratio. A lower ratio shows lenders you’re a safer bet, which can help you secure better rates.
You can often qualify, but the rate will likely be higher. Raising your credit score, increasing your down payment, or exploring FHA loans can help offset lender risk and improve your rate.
The interest rate only reflects what you pay to borrow the principal, while the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) includes both the interest rate and additional fees, offering a more complete picture of your total costs.
Jumbo loans—meant for higher-value properties—often carry slightly higher rates due to the greater risk for lenders, though well-qualified borrowers may find rates similar to standard conforming loans.
Government-backed loans, like FHA, VA, and USDA, frequently offer lower interest rates and more lenient credit requirements. For example, VA loans are known for their especially low rates for qualified veterans.
ARMs can be advantageous if you expect to move or refinance before the fixed-rate period ends. However, be mindful that payments may rise if interest rates go up in the future.
A rate lock means your lender guarantees your quoted rate for a certain period—often 30 to 60 days—shielding you from increases while your loan is processed.
Unless your lender offers a float-down provision, you’ll keep your locked rate even if market rates drop. Some lenders may allow renegotiation, but it depends on their specific policies.
Discount points allow you to prepay interest to secure a lower rate. They’re most beneficial for borrowers intending to keep their mortgage over the long term.
Yes, purchasing points—where one point equals 1% of your loan amount—can reduce your interest rate. This can save you money if you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup the upfront cost.
Yes, there are special loan programs with features like lower down payments, reduced rates, or down payment assistance for first-time buyers.
Yes, making additional payments toward your principal balance will cut down the interest you pay and can help you pay off your mortgage sooner.
Yes, but requirements are often stricter, and you may need a larger down payment and a higher credit score compared to a primary residence.
Refinancing is worth considering if you can secure a rate at least 0.5% to 1% below your current one, and you plan to stay in your home long enough to recover closing costs.
Yes, refinancing into a fixed-rate loan is a common strategy for ARM holders seeking more predictable payments before a rate adjustment.
Yes. Sammamish Mortgage provides up-to-date rates and transparent costs directly on their website, allowing you to compare options confidently and without hidden fees.
Sammamish Mortgage distinguishes itself with upfront online rate and fee transparency, $1 lender fees, and access to a wide array of loan products. All underwriting is handled in-house, leading to faster processing and approvals compared to many larger institutions.
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