Mortgage Rates This Week – June 19, 2025

Mortgage rates were flat this week with a surprising lack of volatility following Wednesday’s Fed rate decision. The 30-year fixed is 6.000%, 6.240% APR with 2.389 points; or 6.624%, 6.643% APR without points for top-tier borrowers putting 25% down with 780+ credit. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.125%, 5.503% APR with 2.304 points; or 5.875%, 5.896% APR without points.

As expected, the Fed kept rates unchanged. The unknown was whether the Fed would change its future rate cut expectations as the economy continues to slow and inflation remains tame. While the Fed indicated they still expect two rate cuts later this year it removed one projected rate cut in 2026 and one in 2027. Fed Chair Powell in his press conference following the decision, reiterated that despite low inflation, tariffs are expected to cause prices to rise in the second half of the year.

Powell acknowledged that the job market is weakening, referencing the difficulty job seekers have finding employment once they lose their jobs; however, he maintained that overall layoffs are low and the unemployment rate remains at reasonable levels. The Fed has now indicated numerous times that it would rather be too late than too early in lowering rates. While rates started Wednesday lower, anticipating a Fed statement favorable for long-term rates, rates quickly gave up all improvements shortly after the policy statement was released.

Given the Fed’s focus on employment, weekly jobless claims are a key indicator to watch. Jobless claims remained elevated for the fourth week in a row, coming in at 245k for the week. While the trend is higher, the numbers do not indicate mass layoffs and a job market breaking down. Continuing claims show more weakness as they reached the highest level since 2021, coming in at 1.945 M.

Inflation Signals

• Consumer Prices (May CPI): +0.1% month over month; +2.4% annually. Shelter costs (up 0.3%) drove most of the gain; food prices also increased 0.3%. Overall, inflation is cooling, but the markets’ reaction is minimal as the focus is still on tariffs and the potential inflation impact going forward.
• Wholesale Prices (May PPI): +0.1% month over month; +2.6% annually, in line with what economists expected. Service-sector prices contracted for the first time in almost a year in May, as businesses faced rising input costs. This situation highlights the ongoing risks of a prolonged period characterized by sluggish growth and elevated inflation.

Consumer Demand: Retail Sales

Total retail sales in May, not counting automobiles and fuel, rose 0.49%, a more moderate pace compared to April’s similar modest rise. Core retail sales, not including restaurant sales, grew by 0.23% month-over-month. The slowdown in retail sales growth may be largely due to ongoing inflation concerns and high interest rates. However, key factors like job stability and rising wages are still backing consumer spending.

Growth Update: Q1 GDP

Revised Commerce Department figures showed the economy contracted 0.2% annually in Q1—better than the initial –0.3% estimate but still a clear downturn. Weaker government spending and a surge in import stockpiling ahead of tariffs impacted the updated GDP reading. Mortgage rates eased on the news as details in the report, including consumer spending, were weaker than expected. Q2 2025 figures are set to be released on July 30, 2025.

Labor Market: ADP & BLS Preview

May’s PCE numbers, which are set to be released June 27, 2025, will be closely watched. A softer PCE would fuel further rate relief, while stronger readings would reverse course.

The BLS Non-Farm Payroll Report showed nonfarm payroll employment rose by 139,000 in May, similar to the 149,000 average over the previous 12 months. This upward momentum was particularly evident in the sectors of health care, leisure and hospitality, and social assistance. Meanwhile, the federal government experienced a decline in job numbers. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.2 percent, with 7.2 million unemployed individuals.

This Report could move the markets as the Fed has consistently indicated that its focus is more on employment than inflation. An upside surprise could lift rates; a downside miss could lower them. Thus far, weekly jobless claims have weakened slightly but have shown little movement overall, suggesting that next week’s numbers shouldn’t shock the markets either way. With that said, the BLS consistently releases inaccurate data in its initial report, only to revise the numbers in subsequent months.

Spring Buying Season

Buyer demand remains strong as we enter the summer buying season. Fully underwritten pre-approvals are essential to win offers in this competitive market, especially as rates hover near the week’s lows.

To find the most affordable rate, compare different lenders and collaborate with a company that offers transparent mortgage rates and costs online. Experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers can guide you through the current market conditions and chart the most effective course forward.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
06/24/2025

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before moving on to additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) May= 0.1% – Annual = 2.4%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) May = 0.1% – Annual = 2.6%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) April = 0.1% – Annual = 2.1% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2025

Loan limits have increased for 2025. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $806,500, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,037,300 for 1-unit properties in 2024.

Visit our 2025 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California,, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.

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