Last week’s economic data was hit and miss as mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower. The minutes for last month’s FOMC meeting were released, and confirmed the Federal Reserve’s intention to leave its quantitative easing program unchanged at least for the near term.
The National Association of Homebuilders Wells Fargo Housing Market Index for November indicated that builder confidence, while still positive, dipped by one point to a reading of 54 as compared to an anticipated reading of 55, and October’s revised reading of 54. NAHB noted that uncertainty over the federal budget and political gridlock may have kept builder and consumer confidence levels from achieving further gains in November.
The Consumer Price Index for October contracted by -0.10 percent against expectations of 0.00 percent growth and September’s reading of 0.20 percent growth. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy sectors, rose by 0.10 percent against expectations of 0.20 percent and was unchanged from September’s reading.
The National Association of REALTORS reported that Existing Home Sales for October were lower than for September’s reading of 5.29 million, but slightly exceeded the expected reading of 5.10 million. October’s reading came in at 5.12 million sales of existing homes.
Analysts attributed the lower reading to tight supplies of available homes in many areas and higher home prices and mortgage rates that impacted affordability.
Weekly Jobless Claims were notably lower at 323,000 new jobless claims as compared to the prior week’s reading of 344,000 new jobless claims. Analysts and investors had expected a reading of 334,000 new jobs. Analysts noted the Veterans Day holiday as a likely contributor to the lower reading for new jobless claims.
What Will Impact Mortgage Rates This Week
We have a holiday shortened week with the bond market closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and closing early on Friday. Economic reports include Durable Goods, Weekly Jobless Claims and Consumer Confidence/Sentiment. Wednesday will be the most important trading day of the week as many traders will set their positions going into the long weekend. Trading will be light late Wednesday and Friday.
On Tap This Week
|Date||Time (ET)||Economic Release||Actual||Market Expects||Prior|
|25-Nov||10:00 AM||Pending Home Sales||–||1.30%||-5.60%|
|26-Nov||8:30 AM||Housing Starts||–||915K||891K|
|26-Nov||8:30 AM||Housing Starts||–||920K||NA|
|26-Nov||8:30 AM||Building Permits||–||932K||918K|
|26-Nov||8:30 AM||Building Permits||–||932K||NA|
|26-Nov||9:00 AM||Case-Shiller 20-city Index||–||13.00%||12.80%|
|26-Nov||9:00 AM||FHFA Housing Price Index||–||NA||0.30%|
|26-Nov||10:00 AM||Consumer Confidence||–||72.4||71.2|
|27-Nov||7:00 AM||MBA Mortgage Index||–||NA||-2.30%|
|27-Nov||8:30 AM||Initial Claims||–||330K||323K|
|27-Nov||8:30 AM||Continuing Claims||–||2875K||2876K|
|27-Nov||8:30 AM||Durable Orders||–||-2.20%||3.80%|
|27-Nov||8:30 AM||Durable Goods -ex transportation||–||0.20%||-0.20%|
|27-Nov||9:45 AM||Chicago PMI||–||58||65.9|
|27-Nov||9:55 AM||Michigan Sentiment – Final||–||73||72|
|27-Nov||10:00 AM||Leading Indicators||–||-0.10%||0.70%|
|27-Nov||10:30 AM||Crude Inventories||–||NA||0.375M|
|27-Nov||10:30 AM||Natural Gas Inventories||–||NA||-45 bcf|