Mortgage Rates This Week – August 6, 2026

Rates eased modestly from last week’s year-long highs as Iran de-escalation news pulled oil sharply lower, but remain elevated and volatile heading into tomorrow’s July jobs report. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 6.124%, with a 6.341% APR and 2.123 points, or 6.500% with a 6.558% APR and 0.449 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.375%, with a 5.756% APR and 2.288 points; or 6.000%, with a 6.060% APR and 0.232 points.

The U.S. and Iran paused hostilities for three consecutive nights beginning Monday, sending oil prices sharply lower, WTI crude fell 8% to $82 per barrel and Brent dropped 9.5% to $87, as traders began pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution. Yields fell 4 to 6 basis points across maturities Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury reaching 4.62%, as signs of progress toward ending the conflict curbed expectations for more than one Fed rate hike in the coming year. That’s a meaningful pullback from the 4.68% close following last week’s FOMC decision, though it leaves the 10-year well above where it was before the July escalation. The pause hasn’t produced a signed agreement, and the three FOMC members who voted to hike rates last week, Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan, have spent this week publicly warning that the Fed must act on inflation regardless of what happens with oil. Until a durable ceasefire produces sustained lower energy prices that filter through to July and August CPI, those dissenting voices have data on their side.

Last Thursday’s June PCE report, released the same morning as the Q2 GDP miss, provided the most concrete good news on inflation since the war began. The PCE price index fell 0.1% in June, the first monthly decline since April 2020, bringing the annual rate to 3.7%, down from 4.1% in May. Core PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure, rose just 0.1% for the month and decelerated to 3.3% annually from 3.4%. Both readings came in below expectations and reflected the brief period of lower oil prices in late May and June before the ceasefire collapsed. The improvement is real, but it’s also backward-looking: July’s PCE, which releases August 26, will reflect oil prices that climbed above $96 a barrel before this week’s pullback. Whether the disinflationary trend continues or reverses depends almost entirely on whether the current pause in hostilities holds.

The FOMC’s 9-3 vote last week has changed the market’s operating assumption for the rest of the year. The CME FedWatch tool shows roughly a 58% probability of a September rate hike, a dramatic shift from the 38% seen just before the FOMC meeting. The September 15-16 meeting is now a live event in a way it hasn’t been since the rate-hiking cycle of 2022-23. What tips it will be for tomorrow’s July jobs report and the August 12 CPI print. A payroll number that rebounds meaningfully from June’s 57,000, consensus is around 85,000, paired with CPI that shows oil-driven inflation re-accelerating in July gives the three dissenters the data they need to push for action. A second consecutive soft jobs print leaves the committee with more reason to hold.

Mortgage applications fell 2.9% for the week ending July 31, with purchases down 4% and refinances down 2%, as the 30-year conforming rate climbed to 6.81%, its highest level in a year. Purchase applications fell 3% below last year’s pace for the second consecutive week, a notable reversal from the double-digit year-over-year leads earlier in the spring. Refinance applications fell 9% below year-ago levels, the third consecutive weekly decline. The cumulative impact of rates rising nearly 70 basis points since the Iran war began is now showing up clearly in application volumes: the buyer pool that was 14% larger than a year ago in April has flipped to being smaller. Inventory improvements are the one factor providing any buffer; buyers who do act have more homes to choose from than at any point in recent years, particularly in Washington state, where listings continue to run well above year-ago levels.

On the housing side, no new national data released this week. June existing home sales, 4.09 million annualized, 4.6 months of supply, median price $440,600, remain the most current national read, with the July report due August 11. The new home market offered a partial bright spot last week: June new home sales beat expectations at 628,000 annualized with builders cutting median prices to $398,300, down 2.7% year-over-year, to sustain demand. That price flexibility doesn’t exist in the resale market, where the lock-in effect continues to keep inventory below normal and prices near record highs.

Tomorrow’s July jobs report is the immediate focus. The July FOMC minutes, released in three weeks and Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech on August 28 will set the tone through September. If this week’s ceasefire pause holds and translates into a signed agreement, the energy-driven inflation picture changes materially and the September hike probability falls. If fighting resumes and oil climbs back above $90, the dissenters’ case strengthens and rates follow.

Summer Buying Season

Purchase activity responds quickly to any rate improvement, indicating that buyers are there; they’re just watching the market closely. In Washington state specifically, the jump in available inventory this year means buyers have more options than at any point in the past several years, which changes the negotiating dynamic in many submarkets. In this environment, the difference between a fully underwritten pre-approval and a standard pre-qualification is real: sellers and listing agents notice, particularly when there’s competition. Rate buydowns and 7/1 ARM products are also worth modeling for buyers with a defined time horizon, as both can meaningfully lower the effective payment relative to where the 30-year fixed sits today.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
08/06/2026

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Inflation is undoubtedly the most significant driver of interest rates. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see in interest rates in the coming months. Inflation is re-accelerating above the Fed’s target of 2% as of March 2026. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before considering additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) March = 0.9% – Annual = 3.3%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) March = 0.5% – Annual = 4.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.4% – Annual = 2.8% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2026

Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.

Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits, see our 2026 FHA pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, California & Colorado. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.