No Obligation and transparency 24/7. Instantly compare live rates and costs from our network of lenders across the country. Real-time accurate rates and closing costs for a variety of loan programs custom to your specific situation.
Mortgage rates are lower this week as the markets digest the first big releases of economic data for the month, both of which indicate favorable conditions for lower rates in the future. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.500%, with a 5.686% APR and 1.887 points, or 6.000%, with a 6.012% APR and 0 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 4.500%, with a 4.890% APR and 2.425 points; or 5.375%, with a 5.397% APR and 0 points.
Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the Consumer Price Index encompassing the past two months, which shows inflation rose only 0.2% during that time, well below expectations. Year-over-year inflation dropped from 3% to 2.7%, which is well below the estimate that the annual rate would remain flat. The Core rate, which removes volatile food and energy prices, rose just 0.1% and the year-over-year rate dropped to 2.6% from the previous rate of 3%. This report is in stark contrast to the narrative that inflation is a significant concern due to tariffs, and it shows that inflation is cooling along with the economy. Whether this report is enough to change the hawks at the Fed, who’ve been hesitant to lower rates due to inflation concerns, remains to be seen, as some in the media are already voicing skepticism about the report’s accuracy. If this report were a sign of things to come, rather than a one-off outlier, 2026 could be the year we finally see a significant drop in mortgage rates, helping an industry that has been struggling for the past few years.
Get the latest updates right to your inbox
Earlier this week, the BLS released its October and November jobs reports. Overall, the report was weak, with 105k jobs lost in October and 64k jobs gained in November. Additionally, per usual, there were negative revisions to the previous two months, with August being revised lower by 22k jobs, and September revised down by 11k jobs. The unemployment rate, which Fed members had widely discussed as a reason the job market was stable, came in worse than expected, rising to 4.6% as the labor force expanded, reversing a trend observed in previous reports. The unemployment rate has increased by 0.5% since July and is another data point indicating that employment is deteriorating. While mortgage rates improved, the reaction was limited due to the November headline coming in slightly above expectations.
Also limiting the improvement in rates was Retail Sales, which remained strong with the core rate coming in up 0.4%. Consumer spending has been a bright spot and remains more resilient than most had predicted. It will be interesting to see how long the consumer can sustain this if employment continues to soften and credit card debt continues to pile up for a large chunk of Americans.
Last week, the Fed lowered the Fed Funds Rate as expected by 0.25 percentage points. What was different this time around was that mortgage rates didn’t spike higher following the rate cut. The reason rates improved was directly related to Fed Chair Powell, who, in his press conference, stated that he felt the BLS was overstating job growth by about 60,000 jobs per month. Additionally, he mentioned that service inflation was cooling and that, without tariffs, inflation would be close to the Fed’s 2% target. Forecasts for future rate cuts remain limited as current expectations are for 2-3 cuts in 2026, even with a new Fed Chair coming in to replace Powell, who will clearly be more eager to lower rates.
Earlier in the month, we will finally receive the long-delayed Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation. The report showed inflation rose 0.3% in September, with the year-over-year rate decreasing to 2.8% down from 2.9%. While 0.3% is not a great number, it also doesn’t indicate inflation spiking due to tariffs, clearing the way for the Fed to cut rates to counter a clearly slowing jobs market.
Last month, we got the Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures wholesale inflation, which rose 0.3% in September and rose 2.7% year over year, matching expectations. Core PPI rose 0.1% monthly and 2.6% year over year, both cooler than the markets expected. This is old data, and of the three inflation reports, the PPI is the least important to the rate markets; however, any inflation report coming in below estimates is good news for those seeking lower mortgage rates.
With the holidays in full swing, demand among homebuyers remains surprisingly strong, as rates remain near the year’s lows. Fully underwritten pre-approvals are crucial for securing offers in this highly competitive market, particularly as interest rates dip.
To get the best possible rate, it is recommended that you compare lenders and work with a firm that provides transparent mortgage rates and associated costs online. At Sammamish Mortgage, knowledgeable and experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers are available to assist you in navigating the current market landscape and determining the best path ahead.
**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.686% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.500% | 4.890% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.072% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.828% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.375% | 5.606% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.500% | 4.884% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 4.875% | 6.044% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.828% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.375% | 5.599% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.500% | 4.893% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.072% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.828% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.375% | 5.602% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.500% | 4.893% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.075% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.625% | 5.828% |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.375% | 5.607% |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 4.500% | 4.901% |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.000% | 6.075% |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.500% | 5.701% |
| Loan Programs | Rate |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.79% |
| 20-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.62% |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.10% |
| 10-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.12% |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 6.20% |
| 5/1 adjustable mortgage rate | 5.92% |
(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)
Without a doubt, the biggest driver of interest rates is inflation. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before moving on to additional rate cuts.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) September = 0.3% – Annual = 3.0%
Producer Price Index (PPI) August = -0.1% – Annual = 2.6%
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) August = 0.3% – Annual = 2.7%
Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.
For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.
For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.
A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.
| FOMC Meeting Date | Rate Change (bps) | Federal Funds Rate |
| December 10, 2025 | –25 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| October 29, 2025 | –25 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| September 17, 2025 | –25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| January 29, 2025 | -25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| December 18, 2024 | -25 | 4.25% to 4.50% |
| November 7, 2024 | -25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| September 18, 2024 | -50 | 4.75% to 5.00% |
| July 26, 2023 | +25 | 5.25% to 5.50% |
| May 03, 2023 | +25 | 5.00% to 5.25% |
| March 22, 2023 | +25 | 4.75% to 5.0% |
| February 2, 2023 | +25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| December 14, 2022 | +50 | 5.0% to 5.25% |
| November 2, 2022 | +75 | 4.5% to 4.75% |
| October 12, 2022 | +75 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Sept 21, 2022 | +75 | 3.00% to 3.25% |
| July 27, 2022 | +75 | 2.25% to 2.5% |
| June 16, 2022 | +75 | 1.5% to 1.75% |
| May 5, 2022 | +50 | 0.75% to 1.00% |
| March 17, 2022 | +25 | 0.25% to 0.50% |
Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.
Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.
FHA Loan limit 2026 will be out soon. For FHA loan limits for 2025, visit our pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.
Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.
Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.
Mortgage rates fluctuate daily and depend on the type of loan, term length, and your individual financial situation. For the most up-to-date and personalized rates, reach out directly to your lender.
Several factors affect mortgage rates, including inflation, central bank decisions, the demand for mortgage-backed securities, and general economic trends. Your own credit rating, loan size, and down payment will also impact the rate you’re offered.
Typically, borrowers with credit scores of 740 or above receive the most favorable rates. Those with scores above 620 still qualify for many programs, but may see slightly higher rates. Government-backed FHA and VA loans may accept lower scores.
While your earnings don’t directly set your rate, they do influence your debt-to-income ratio. A lower ratio shows lenders you’re a safer bet, which can help you secure better rates.
You can often qualify, but the rate will likely be higher. Raising your credit score, increasing your down payment, or exploring FHA loans can help offset lender risk and improve your rate.
The interest rate only reflects what you pay to borrow the principal, while the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) includes both the interest rate and additional fees, offering a more complete picture of your total costs.
Jumbo loans—meant for higher-value properties—often carry slightly higher rates due to the greater risk for lenders, though well-qualified borrowers may find rates similar to standard conforming loans.
Government-backed loans, like FHA, VA, and USDA, frequently offer lower interest rates and more lenient credit requirements. For example, VA loans are known for their especially low rates for qualified veterans.
ARMs can be advantageous if you expect to move or refinance before the fixed-rate period ends. However, be mindful that payments may rise if interest rates go up in the future.
A rate lock means your lender guarantees your quoted rate for a certain period—often 30 to 60 days—shielding you from increases while your loan is processed.
Unless your lender offers a float-down provision, you’ll keep your locked rate even if market rates drop. Some lenders may allow renegotiation, but it depends on their specific policies.
Yes, purchasing points—where one point equals 1% of your loan amount—can reduce your interest rate. This can save you money if you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup the upfront cost.
Discount points allow you to prepay interest to secure a lower rate. They’re most beneficial for borrowers intending to keep their mortgage over the long term.
Yes, making additional payments toward your principal balance will cut down the interest you pay and can help you pay off your mortgage sooner.
Yes, there are special loan programs with features like lower down payments, reduced rates, or down payment assistance for first-time buyers.
Yes, but requirements are often stricter, and you may need a larger down payment and a higher credit score compared to a primary residence.
Refinancing is worth considering if you can secure a rate at least 0.5% to 1% below your current one, and you plan to stay in your home long enough to recover closing costs.
Yes, refinancing into a fixed-rate loan is a common strategy for ARM holders seeking more predictable payments before a rate adjustment.
Yes. Sammamish Mortgage provides up-to-date rates and transparent costs directly on their website, allowing you to compare options confidently and without hidden fees.
Sammamish Mortgage distinguishes itself with upfront online rate and fee transparency, $1 lender fees, and access to a wide array of loan products. All underwriting is handled in-house, leading to faster processing and approvals compared to many larger institutions.
Whether you’re buying a home or ready to refinance, our professionals can help.
{hours_open} - {hours_closed} Pacific
No Obligation and transparency 24/7. Instantly compare live rates and costs from our network of lenders across the country. Real-time accurate rates and closing costs for a variety of loan programs custom to your specific situation.