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Rates moved higher this week. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.750%, with a 5.953% APR and 2.021 points, or 6.250% with a 6.269% APR and 0.055 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.000%, with a 5.369% APR and 2.239 points; or 5.625%, with a 5.689% APR and 0.265 points.
The move higher this week came from several days of bond market weakness, culminating in a big move up yesterday ahead of the Fed meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.42%, its highest level in about a month, and mortgage rates followed. The underlying driver is the same one that has pushed rates up since late February: the war in Iran sent oil prices sharply higher, which fed directly into March CPI. The all-items index rose 0.9% in March, the largest monthly increase in two years, driven almost entirely by a 21.2% spike in gasoline. The annual rate jumped to 3.3%, the highest since April 2024. Core CPI, which strips out food and energy, came in at just 0.2% for the month and 2.6% annually, which is why the bond market hasn’t completely sold off. Investors understand that most of the inflation spike is energy-driven. But producer prices tell a different story: PPI rose 0.5% in March with the annual rate now at 4.0%, the highest since early 2023. Producer prices lead consumer prices, which means there is still inflationary pressure in the pipeline even as gasoline retreats from its March peak.
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This morning confirmed that concern. The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, PCE, rose 3.5% year-over-year in March, up sharply from 2.8% in February, while core PCE accelerated to 3.2% annually, up from 3.0% and moving in the wrong direction. Q1 GDP came in at 2.0% annualized, an improvement from Q4’s 0.5% pace but below the 2.3% consensus. Growth that’s decent but not strong, paired with inflation that’s re-accelerating, is the scenario that gives the Fed the least room to act.
The FOMC meeting wrapped up yesterday with the expected hold at 3.50%–3.75%, but the vote was far from routine. The committee split 8-4, the most dissents since October 1992, with officials disagreeing for opposite reasons. Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan voted to hold but opposed keeping the easing bias in the statement, signaling they don’t think rate cuts should be implied at all right now. Miran dissented the other way, preferring a 25-basis-point cut immediately. Powell also announced he’ll remain on the Board of Governors after his term as chair ends May 15, meaning incoming chair Kevin Warsh won’t shift the committee’s balance as markets had assumed; Powell’s vote stays, just in a different seat. Three of the most influential voices on the FOMC just publicly said cuts are premature while inflation is where it is. That limits how much bond yields and mortgage rates can fall until the data changes.
On the housing side, existing home sales fell 3.6% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million, a nine-month low, while inventory rose to 1.36 million units, representing 4.1 months of supply. That’s up from 3.7 months in January, but still well below the 5-to-6 months that defines a balanced market, and the median price hit $408,800 in March, extending 33 consecutive months of year-over-year gains. Pending home sales rose 1.5% in March despite higher rates, pointing to real demand waiting on the sidelines. That showed up in the MBA’s latest application data: purchase applications jumped 10% week-over-week and were 14% above the same week last year, with the surge directly tied to the brief rate improvement that followed the ceasefire announcement.
The March jobs report showed 178,000 payrolls added and unemployment at 4.3%, but the headline masked a weak underlying trend: the 12-month average is roughly 22,000 jobs per month, and February was revised to a loss of 133,000. Wage growth slowed to 3.5% annually, the lowest since May 2021. Slowing wage growth is actually the one piece of the employment picture that supports lower rates over time, because wages that grow faster than productivity are a core driver of services inflation. At 3.5%, that pressure is easing — but today’s core PCE print shows that services inflation hasn’t yet followed.
Purchase activity responds quickly to any rate improvement, indicating that buyers are there. They’re just watching the market closely. In this environment, the difference between a fully underwritten pre-approval and a standard pre-qualification is real: sellers and listing agents notice, particularly when there’s competition. With inventory still tight despite recent improvements, being positioned to move quickly remains one of the most effective tools a buyer has. Rate buydowns and 7/1 ARM products are also worth modeling for buyers with a defined time horizon, as both can meaningfully lower the effective payment relative to where the 30-year fixed sits today.
To get the best possible rate, it is recommended that you compare lenders and work with a firm that provides transparent mortgage rates and associated costs online. At Sammamish Mortgage, knowledgeable and experienced Mortgage Advisors and Loan Officers are available to assist you in navigating the current market landscape and determining the best path ahead.
**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.946% | 1.947 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.000% | 5.369% | 2.239 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.250% | 6.032% | 2.298 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.110% | 2.414 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.955% | 2.041 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.000% | 5.372% | 2.259 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.250% | 6.035% | 2.326 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.110% | 2.414 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.954% | 2.032 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.000% | 5.378% | 2.299 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.250% | 6.034% | 2.318 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.110% | 2.414 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.957% | 2.062 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.000% | 5.377% | 2.289 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.250% | 6.042% | 2.398 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.110% | 2.414 |
| Loan Programs | Rate | APR | Points |
| Conforming 30 year fixed | 5.750% | 5.953% | 2.021 |
| Conforming 15 year fixed | 5.000% | 5.369% | 2.239 |
| Conforming 7/1 ARM | 5.250% | 6.044% | 2.426 |
| Jumbo 30 year fixed | 5.875% | 6.070% | 1.993 |
| Loan Programs | Rate |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.79% |
| 20-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.62% |
| 15-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.10% |
| 10-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.12% |
| 30-year jumbo mortgage rate | 6.20% |
| 5/1 adjustable mortgage rate | 5.92% |
(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)
Inflation is undoubtedly the most significant driver of interest rates. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see in interest rates in the coming months. Current inflation is cooling and moving closer to the Fed’s target of 2%. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before considering additional rate cuts.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) February = 0.2% – Annual = 2.5%
Producer Price Index (PPI) February = 0.7% – Annual = 3.4%
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) January = 0.4% – Annual = 2.8%
Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.
When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.
For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.
For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.
A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.
| FOMC Meeting Date | Rate Change (bps) | Federal Funds Rate |
| April 29, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| March 18, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| January 28, 2026 | 0 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| December 10, 2025 | –25 | 3.50% to 3.75% |
| October 29, 2025 | –25 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| September 17, 2025 | –25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| January 29, 2025 | -25 | 4.00% to 4.25% |
| December 18, 2024 | -25 | 4.25% to 4.50% |
| November 7, 2024 | -25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| September 18, 2024 | -50 | 4.75% to 5.00% |
| July 26, 2023 | +25 | 5.25% to 5.50% |
| May 03, 2023 | +25 | 5.00% to 5.25% |
| March 22, 2023 | +25 | 4.75% to 5.0% |
| February 2, 2023 | +25 | 4.50% to 4.75% |
| December 14, 2022 | +50 | 5.0% to 5.25% |
| November 2, 2022 | +75 | 4.5% to 4.75% |
| October 12, 2022 | +75 | 3.75% to 4.00% |
| Sept 21, 2022 | +75 | 3.00% to 3.25% |
| July 27, 2022 | +75 | 2.25% to 2.5% |
| June 16, 2022 | +75 | 1.5% to 1.75% |
| May 5, 2022 | +50 | 0.75% to 1.00% |
| March 17, 2022 | +25 | 0.25% to 0.50% |
Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.
Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.
For FHA loan limits, see our 2026 FHA pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.
Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.
Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.
Mortgage rates fluctuate daily and depend on the type of loan, term length, and your individual financial situation. For the most up-to-date and personalized rates, reach out directly to your lender.
Several factors affect mortgage rates, including inflation, central bank decisions, the demand for mortgage-backed securities, and general economic trends. Your own credit rating, loan size, and down payment will also impact the rate you’re offered.
Typically, borrowers with credit scores of 740 or above receive the most favorable rates. Those with scores above 620 still qualify for many programs, but may see slightly higher rates. Government-backed FHA and VA loans may accept lower scores.
While your earnings don’t directly set your rate, they do influence your debt-to-income ratio. A lower ratio shows lenders you’re a safer bet, which can help you secure better rates.
You can often qualify, but the rate will likely be higher. Raising your credit score, increasing your down payment, or exploring FHA loans can help offset lender risk and improve your rate.
The interest rate only reflects what you pay to borrow the principal, while the APR (Annual Percentage Rate) includes both the interest rate and additional fees, offering a more complete picture of your total costs.
Jumbo loans—meant for higher-value properties—often carry slightly higher rates due to the greater risk for lenders, though well-qualified borrowers may find rates similar to standard conforming loans.
Government-backed loans, like FHA, VA, and USDA, frequently offer lower interest rates and more lenient credit requirements. For example, VA loans are known for their especially low rates for qualified veterans.
ARMs can be advantageous if you expect to move or refinance before the fixed-rate period ends. However, be mindful that payments may rise if interest rates go up in the future.
A rate lock means your lender guarantees your quoted rate for a certain period—often 30 to 60 days—shielding you from increases while your loan is processed.
Unless your lender offers a float-down provision, you’ll keep your locked rate even if market rates drop. Some lenders may allow renegotiation, but it depends on their specific policies.
Discount points allow you to prepay interest to secure a lower rate. They’re most beneficial for borrowers intending to keep their mortgage over the long term.
Yes, purchasing points—where one point equals 1% of your loan amount—can reduce your interest rate. This can save you money if you plan to stay in the home long enough to recoup the upfront cost.
Yes, there are special loan programs with features like lower down payments, reduced rates, or down payment assistance for first-time buyers.
Yes, making additional payments toward your principal balance will cut down the interest you pay and can help you pay off your mortgage sooner.
Yes, but requirements are often stricter, and you may need a larger down payment and a higher credit score compared to a primary residence.
Refinancing is worth considering if you can secure a rate at least 0.5% to 1% below your current one, and you plan to stay in your home long enough to recover closing costs.
Yes, refinancing into a fixed-rate loan is a common strategy for ARM holders seeking more predictable payments before a rate adjustment.
Yes. Sammamish Mortgage provides up-to-date rates and transparent costs directly on their website, allowing you to compare options confidently and without hidden fees.
Sammamish Mortgage distinguishes itself with upfront online rate and fee transparency, $1 lender fees, and access to a wide array of loan products. All underwriting is handled in-house, leading to faster processing and approvals compared to many larger institutions.
Whether you’re buying a home or ready to refinance, our professionals can help.
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