Mortgage Rates This Week – July 2, 2026

Rates held near last week’s levels in a volatile, holiday-shortened week, with the 10-year Treasury yield swinging more than 10 basis points from a 7-week low on Monday to a partial rebound by midweek. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.875%, with a 6.080% APR and 2.029 points, or 6.375% with a 6.399% APR and 0.101 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.125%, with a 5.528% APR and 2.444 points; or 5.875%, with a 5.900% APR and 0.013 points.

The 10-year Treasury yield dropped to 4.36% Monday, its lowest level in seven weeks, as rising tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices returning to pre-war levels gave bond markets their clearest signal yet that the energy-driven inflation shock may be behind us. Brent crude is now trading at approximately $70 a barrel, essentially where it was before Iran’s blockade began in February. But the relief was short-lived. Yields rebounded sharply toward 4.50% Tuesday as the market’s focus shifted back to the Fed’s hawkish dot plot and the probability of a rate hike in September, which the CME FedWatch tool currently puts at around 60%. The whipsaw pattern has been consistent all week: Iran news drives yields lower, Fed expectations pull them back up. By Wednesday, Fed Chair Warsh appeared to acknowledge the tension, saying publicly that inflation risks in the U.S. were “softening”, his most dovish language since taking the chairmanship, which helped yields settle at around 4.47%. The 30-year Treasury is no longer pressing 18-year highs. Whether this week represents a genuine turning point or another temporary retreat depends almost entirely on tomorrow morning’s jobs report.

June’s jobs report, released this morning, came in well below expectations at 57,000 nonfarm payrolls, less than half the 115,000 consensus and the weakest monthly gain since February. The unemployment rate fell a tenth of a point to 4.2%, but that improvement reflected a drop in labor force participation to 61.5% rather than genuine job market strength. The headline was made worse by revisions: April was revised down 31,000 and May down 43,000, erasing a combined 74,000 jobs that had been reported over the past two months. The sector breakdown told the clearest story. Leisure and hospitality lost 61,000 jobs, the worst monthly decline for the sector in 2026, confirming what the ADP report had signaled Wednesday: six consecutive months of weak hiring in an industry that historically tracks consumer demand closely. Professional and business services, social assistance, and healthcare continued trending higher, but those gains weren’t enough to offset the leisure drag. Wage growth came in at 0.3% for the month and 3.5% annually, slightly above May’s 3.4%, the one detail that keeps the Fed from fully shifting to a dovish stance. A weakening labor market paired with re-accelerating wages is the most complicated scenario for the Fed to navigate.

Mortgage applications rose 0.4% for the week ending June 26, with purchase applications up 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis while refinances declined 1%. The national 30-year conforming rate fell to 6.57%, its lowest level in a month and the second consecutive weekly decline. Kan noted that purchase applications remain ahead of 2025’s pace and have exhibited year-over-year growth for almost three months, as prospective homebuyers are finding opportunities in markets with ample inventory and easing home-price growth. The ARM share dropping to 7.6%, its lowest since January, is worth noting: when buyers stop reaching for ARMs, it typically means they’re becoming more comfortable with the fixed-rate environment rather than trying to escape it. That’s a subtle but meaningful sign of market normalization.

On the housing side, May’s existing home sales, 4.17 million annualized, 4.5 months of supply, median price $429,300, remain the most current national read. No new national data was released this week. The June existing home sales report will be released on July 23, which will give the first read on buyer activity following the formal Iran deal signing and the associated improvement in rates. In Washington state, inventory continues to run well above year-ago levels, providing buyers in the NWMLS markets more negotiating room than at any point in recent years.

This morning’s jobs report changes the calculus heading into the July 28–29 FOMC meeting. A 57,000 print with 74,000 in downward revisions is not the labor market picture that supports a rate hike. The CME FedWatch tool will likely reprice September hike odds lower when markets open tomorrow after the holiday. June CPI releases July 14. If energy disinflation from oil’s retreat below $70 shows up meaningfully in that print, the case for a hike later this year weakens further. Warsh’s comment this week that inflation risks were “softening” now looks prescient rather than premature.

Summer Buying Season

Purchase activity responds quickly to any rate improvement, indicating that buyers are there; they’re just watching the market closely. In Washington state specifically, the jump in available inventory this year means buyers have more options than at any point in the past several years, which changes the negotiating dynamic in many submarkets. In this environment, the difference between a fully underwritten pre-approval and a standard pre-qualification is real: sellers and listing agents notice, particularly when there’s competition. Rate buydowns and 7/1 ARM products are also worth modeling for buyers with a defined time horizon, as both can meaningfully lower the effective payment relative to where the 30-year fixed sits today.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
07/02/2026

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Inflation is undoubtedly the most significant driver of interest rates. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see in interest rates in the coming months. Inflation is re-accelerating above the Fed’s target of 2% as of March 2026. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before considering additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) March = 0.9% – Annual = 3.3%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) March = 0.5% – Annual = 4.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.4% – Annual = 2.8% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2026

Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.

Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits, see our 2026 FHA pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, California & Colorado. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.