Mortgage Rates This Week – June 18, 2026

Rates moved lower this week for the first time in over a month, driven by a development that reshaped every market simultaneously: the U.S. and Iran reached a framework agreement to end the war. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.875%, with a 6.067% APR and 1.887 points, or 6.250% with a 6.308% APR and 0.460 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.125%, with a 5.511% APR and 2.341 points; or 5.750%, with a 5.831% APR and 0.373 points.

“The Deal with the Islamic Republic of Iran is now complete,” Trump posted on Truth Social Sunday, authorizing the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and the immediate removal of the U.S. naval blockade. Oil prices settled at their lowest level since early March, Brent crude fell to $83.17 per barrel, and WTI to $80.75, as markets priced in the eventual restoration of flows through the strait, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil had transited before the war. The 10-year Treasury yield dropped from the 4.52–4.54% range earlier in the week to 4.43% as energy-driven inflation expectations came off sharply. That pullback in yields is what moved mortgage rates lower. The formal signing ceremony is scheduled for Friday in Switzerland. Goldman Sachs expects Gulf exports to normalize by the end of July, though potentially only to 70% of pre-war levels as producers have tapped alternative routes. The shipping industry is moving cautiously; nearly 600 ships remain stranded in Gulf waters, and demining the Strait is expected to take up to 30 days, so oil markets are recovering gradually rather than snapping back overnight.

The Iran deal didn’t resolve what the Fed did on Wednesday. The FOMC voted 12-0 to hold rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but the dot plot told a more hawkish story: 9 of the 18 members who submitted projections forecast at least one rate hike in 2026, with 6 of those projecting two hikes. The median dot now shows the federal funds rate ending 2026 at 3.8%, up from 3.4% in the March projection and a quarter point above the current range. The Fed also revised its year-end PCE inflation forecast up to 3.6% from 2.7% in March and trimmed its GDP growth outlook to 2.2%. Warsh did not submit his own dot, consistent with his long-standing skepticism of forward guidance. The statement itself was noticeably shorter, what Warsh called “curt”, and stripped of the easing bias that had been present since late last year. On inflation, Warsh was direct: “The Fed will deliver price stability. The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous. And that’s an important message we’ve missed for five years. And we’re going to fix that.” The 2-year Treasury yield jumped 16 basis points following the statement, hitting its highest level in over a year, reflecting the market’s recalibration to a higher-for-longer path for short-term rates. For mortgage rates specifically, the Iran deal and the Fed meeting are pulling in different directions this week; the deal brought long-term yields and mortgage rates lower, while the dot plot signals the Fed’s next move is more likely a hike than a cut.

Mortgage applications fell 3.8% for the week ending June 12, with purchase applications down 3% and refinances down 5%, as Fratantoni noted that CPI data “put upward pressure on rates early in the week” while “growing optimism regarding the opening of the Strait of Hormuz brought rates down again by the end of the week.” The net result was a wash that suppressed applications in both directions. Purchase applications remain 3% above last year’s pace; the year-over-year lead has now narrowed from the 14% seen in mid-April to low single digits, a direct consequence of the cumulative rate increases since late April. The pattern throughout this spring and early summer has been consistent: buyers move when rates improve and pull back when they don’t, which means the Iran deal’s impact on this week’s applications will show up clearly in next week’s MBA data.

On the housing side, no new national data was released this week. April existing home sales, 4.02 million annualized, 4.4 months of supply, median price $417,700, remain the most current national read. May existing home sales release June 22, which will give the first clear look at how buyer activity responded to the full rate spike that followed the war’s outbreak in late February. In Washington state, inventory continues to run well above year-ago levels, providing buyers in the NWMLS markets more options and negotiating room than at any point in the past several years.

The next 60 days are a genuine inflection point. If the Strait reopens on schedule and oil flows normalize, energy prices could fall far enough to pull headline inflation back toward 3%, which changes the math on the Fed’s dot plot. If the deal stalls on implementation, mines, Israel-Lebanon fighting, or nuclear negotiations going sideways, oil prices bounce back and so do yields. The formal signing is on Friday. Next week’s May existing home sales and June PPI will be the first data releases against this new backdrop.

Summer Buying Season

Purchase activity responds quickly to any rate improvement, indicating that buyers are there; they’re just watching the market closely. In Washington state specifically, the jump in available inventory this year means buyers have more options than at any point in the past several years, which changes the negotiating dynamic in many submarkets. In this environment, the difference between a fully underwritten pre-approval and a standard pre-qualification is real: sellers and listing agents notice, particularly when there’s competition. Rate buydowns and 7/1 ARM products are also worth modeling for buyers with a defined time horizon, as both can meaningfully lower the effective payment relative to where the 30-year fixed sits today.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
06/18/2026

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Inflation is undoubtedly the most significant driver of interest rates. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see in interest rates in the coming months. Inflation is re-accelerating above the Fed’s target of 2% as of March 2026. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before considering additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) March = 0.9% – Annual = 3.3%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) March = 0.5% – Annual = 4.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.4% – Annual = 2.8% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2026

Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.

Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits, see our 2026 FHA pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.