Mortgage Rates This Week – June 4, 2026

Rates held near last week’s elevated levels with modest day-to-day swings driven by conflicting signals from the Middle East. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 5.875%, with a 6.094% APR and 2.174 points, or 6.375% with a 6.399% APR and 0.099 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.125%, with a 5.500% APR and 2.271 points; or 5.750%, with a 5.804% APR and 0.199 points.

Global oil prices tumbled nearly 20% from their 2026 highs this week as investors grew increasingly optimistic that a lasting ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran would unlock shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. and Iranian negotiators reached a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and begin negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, though President Trump still needs to approve the agreement. Brent crude settled near $92-93 a barrel, down sharply from the $126 peak in late April. That brought the 10-year Treasury yield to 4.49%, roughly flat from last week, as oil-driven inflation expectations eased slightly but didn’t break. The ceasefire path remains fragile, Iran pulled back from talks this week after Israel expanded military operations into Lebanon, with Iran’s lead negotiator calling it “clear evidence of U.S. noncompliance.” Trump said talks were continuing and a deal was imminent, but the Strait of Hormuz is still not open and tanker traffic remains far below pre-war levels. Saudi Aramco’s CEO warned that even if the Strait reopened today, the oil market would take until 2027 to normalize if the blockade extended beyond mid-June. Until ships are actually moving again, any rate improvement tied to deal optimism should be treated as provisional. 

The more significant development this week was the shift in where markets are pricing Fed policy. The probability of a Fed rate hike by year-end jumped to 85%, up from roughly 50% last week, driven by stronger-than-expected labor market data and the expectation that oil-driven inflation will take longer to unwind than markets had hoped. Three months ago, the debate was about when the Fed would cut. Now it’s about whether the next move is a hike. For mortgage rates, which track long-term bond yields rather than the federal funds rate directly, that shift in market consensus is what’s kept the 10-year anchored above 4.45% even as oil prices fell sharply this week.

The labor data that drove that repricing came in two pieces. JOLTS data released Tuesday showed job openings surged to 7.62 million in April, the highest since November 2024, well above the 6.88 million forecast. But the broader pattern remained one of low hiring and low firing, hires fell to 5.1 million and voluntary quits dropped to their lowest point in nearly six years, signaling that workers are staying put rather than confident enough to leave. Then Wednesday’s ADP report showed private employers added 122,000 jobs in May, above the 110,000 consensus and the strongest month since January 2025, with gains spread broadly across eight of ten sectors rather than concentrated in healthcare as in prior months. Taken together, the data describes a labor market that looks resilient on the surface but is showing signs of hesitation underneath, too strong for the Fed to cut, but not strong enough on its own to justify a hike. The May BLS jobs report releases tomorrow morning at 5:30 a.m. PST, with the Wall Street consensus at 80,000 payrolls. That print will set the tone for the June 16-17 FOMC meeting more than almost anything else between now and then.

Mortgage applications fell 2.5% for the week ending May 29, adjusted for the Memorial Day holiday, with purchase applications down 3% and refinances down 2%. Joel Kan of the MBA noted that rates ticking down slightly “did not lead to an increase in mortgage applications,” with purchases at their slowest weekly pace since April. The pattern is now three consecutive weeks of declines, which tells you that the cumulative 30-basis-point increase in rates over May has taken a real toll on application volume. Purchase applications remain 7% above last year’s pace, which means the buyer pool is still larger than a year ago, they’ve just become more selective about when they act. 

On the housing side, no new national data released this week. The April existing home sales picture — 4.02 million annualized, 4.4 months of supply, median price of $417,700, remains the most current national benchmark. The next major housing data point is May existing home sales, releasing June 22. The local picture in Washington continues to show inventory running well ahead of last year’s pace, which is the one factor providing buyers in the NWMLS markets with more negotiating room than they’ve had in years.

May CPI releases June 10, six days before Warsh’s first FOMC meeting. If the May inflation print shows meaningful improvement, which it could, given that energy prices fell sharply in May, the case for a rate hike softens and bond yields have room to pull back. If CPI comes in flat or hotter, the 85% hike probability hardens further and mortgage rates follow yields higher. Tomorrow’s jobs report and June 10th’s CPI are the two numbers that will define the rate environment for the rest of the month.

Summer Buying Season

Purchase activity responds quickly to any rate improvement, indicating that buyers are there; they’re just watching the market closely. In Washington state specifically, the jump in available inventory this year means buyers have more options than at any point in the past several years, which changes the negotiating dynamic in many submarkets. In this environment, the difference between a fully underwritten pre-approval and a standard pre-qualification is real: sellers and listing agents notice, particularly when there’s competition. Rate buydowns and 7/1 ARM products are also worth modeling for buyers with a defined time horizon, as both can meaningfully lower the effective payment relative to where the 30-year fixed sits today.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
06/04/2026

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Inflation is undoubtedly the most significant driver of interest rates. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see in interest rates in the coming months. Inflation is re-accelerating above the Fed’s target of 2% as of March 2026. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before considering additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) March = 0.9% – Annual = 3.3%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) March = 0.5% – Annual = 4.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.4% – Annual = 2.8% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2026

Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.

Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits, see our 2026 FHA pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, Colorado & California. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.