Mortgage Rates This Week – July 23, 2026

Rates moved higher again this week as the Iran conflict expanded beyond the Strait of Hormuz, with Houthi militants attacking two Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea and pushing oil back toward its spring peaks. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate at the time of this post is 6.250%, with a 6.436% APR and 1.785 points, or 6.625% with a 6.672% APR and 0.337 points, for top-tier borrowers who put 25% down and have a credit score of 780 or higher. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate for the same category of borrowers is 5.375%, with a 5.789% APR and 2.498 points; or 6.125%, with a 6.150% APR and 0.012 points.

Iran-backed Houthi militants attacked two Saudi Arabian tankers, Encelia and Layla, in the Red Sea this week, saying the vessels violated their blockade, sending Brent crude advancing as much as 2.5% to trade near $96 a barrel, a six-week high, while WTI rose above $88. A separate attack on a Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal along Russia’s Black Sea coast added to supply concerns that go beyond the Strait of Hormuz alone. Both the U.S. and Iran have signaled that a resumption of peace talks is unlikely in the near term, despite ongoing mediation efforts, and Trump has downplayed the prospect of near-term negotiations. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.66% today, a fresh two-month high, up from 4.59% when last week’s post was published. The pattern the market feared in June is now playing out: the inflation relief from the brief ceasefire period reflected in June’s CPI and PPI data is being unwound in real time as oil approaches the levels that drove rates to their spring peaks. Among mortgage market experts polled this week, 67% expect rates to rise further, with the ongoing conflict keeping oil prices elevated and the Fed remaining cautious with a meeting just days away.

The FOMC meets July 28–29 in Warsh’s second meeting as chair. The committee is in its pre-meeting blackout period, so no officials can speak publicly. A hold at 3.50%–3.75% is nearly certain. What matters is how Warsh frames the inflation picture in his press conference, specifically whether he treats last week’s strong June CPI and PPI numbers as evidence of a trend or dismisses them as a temporary artifact of a ceasefire that has since collapsed. Given that oil is back near $96, essentially erasing the energy price decline that drove June’s favorable data, the latter framing is the more honest one. July’s inflation data will reflect oil prices that have now reversed sharply, meaning the August 12 CPI report will likely show the progress from June partially or fully reversed. The September hike probability, which fell to 50-50 after last week’s CPI beat, will likely firm back toward 65–70% if oil holds at current levels through the FOMC meeting.

Mortgage applications rose 1.9% for the week ending July 17, with purchase applications up 6% and returning to a barely positive 0.2% above last year’s pace, while refinances fell 2%. The 30-year conforming rate hit 6.69%, its highest level since August 2025. Fratantoni attributed the purchase rebound to growing home inventory in many markets, noting that the inflationary improvement in June “seems unlikely to continue in July data, and mortgage rates are likely to remain higher as a result.” The resilience of purchase applications at 6.69%, after falling 7% the prior week when rates were at 6.65%, suggests that inventory improvements are doing real work in keeping buyers engaged even as affordability deteriorates.

That supply signal was reinforced by Thursday’s housing starts report. June housing starts surged 19% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,427,000, the highest in three months, as multi-family starts soared 76.3% after a 41% plunge in May, while single-family starts edged down 0.2% for a third consecutive monthly decline. The multi-family swing is largely statistical noise from a volatile month, and the single-family decline is the more meaningful read: builders are pulling back on single-family construction even as they clear multi-family backlogs, because high mortgage rates and elevated input costs are suppressing buyer demand at the entry level. Building permits fell 3.0% from May to 1,367,000 and were 2.3% below June 2025 levels, which is the forward-looking signal that matters more than starts. Permits declined while starts bounced, suggesting the pipeline of future construction is still contracting.

On the housing side, June existing home sales, 4.09 million annualized, 4.6 months of supply, median price of $440,600, remain the most current read on the resale market, with the July report due August 11. June new home sales data will be released tomorrow, July 24; May’s reading was 580,000 annualized with 10.3 months of supply and a median price of $540,600.

July PCE releases July 31, the July jobs report on August 7, and July CPI on August 12, all after next week’s FOMC meeting. The committee will make its July decision without seeing any of those prints. Warsh walks into July 28–29 with oil at $96 and a labor market that last showed 57,000 payrolls, two data points pointing in opposite directions on the inflation and growth outlook. The press conference language on Wednesday afternoon will be more revealing than the rate decision itself.

Summer Buying Season

Purchase activity responds quickly to any rate improvement, indicating that buyers are there; they’re just watching the market closely. In Washington state specifically, the jump in available inventory this year means buyers have more options than at any point in the past several years, which changes the negotiating dynamic in many submarkets. In this environment, the difference between a fully underwritten pre-approval and a standard pre-qualification is real: sellers and listing agents notice, particularly when there’s competition. Rate buydowns and 7/1 ARM products are also worth modeling for buyers with a defined time horizon, as both can meaningfully lower the effective payment relative to where the 30-year fixed sits today.

Current Mortgage Rates This Week for WA, OR, ID, CA, and CO From Sammamish Mortgage
07/23/2026

**Conforming assumptions – $800k Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit
**Jumbo assumptions – $1.5MM Purchase Price, 25% Down, 800+ Credit

Washington State mortgage rates

Mortgage rates In Oregon

Mortgage rates in Idaho

Mortgage Rates for Colorado

California Mortgage Rates

National Average Mortgage Rates:

(State-specific rates sourced from Sammamish Mortgage – National Average rates sourced from Zillow)

Consumer Price Index, Consumer Sentiment & Inflation

Inflation is undoubtedly the most significant driver of interest rates. With that in mind, we continue to focus on inflation data and expectations going forward to gauge what we can expect to see in interest rates in the coming months. Inflation is re-accelerating above the Fed’s target of 2% as of March 2026. While current inflation numbers would typically warrant a lower Fed Funds Rate, the Fed has indicated that it wants to see the impact of tariffs before considering additional rate cuts.

Consumer Price Index (CPI) March = 0.9% – Annual = 3.3%  

Producer Price Index (PPI) March = 0.5% – Annual = 4.0%

Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) February = 0.4% – Annual = 2.8% 

Overall, it is difficult to predict what will happen with mortgage rates in the near term. With global economic turmoil, banking issues, inflation, and thus far a far more resilient economy than many expected, trying to predict rates from one day to the next to time a rate lock is almost impossible or at least requires luck. However, looking at a longer time horizon, it’s much easier to see that there is an excellent chance we could see rates move lower from current levels, providing an opportunity for recent and existing buyers to potentially refinance in the future.

See Current Rates

What the Fed rate hike means for borrowers, savers, and investors

When the Federal Reserve raises interest rates, it affects various aspects of the economy, including the housing market, savings, and investment.

For potential homebuyers, a Fed rate hike typically leads to an increase in mortgage rates in the early stages of a tightening cycle; however, if the market thinks the Fed rate increases will hurt the economy and cause inflation to decrease, mortgage rates can improve when the Fed raises the Fed Funds Rate. It’s important to note that the Fed does not control mortgage rates. Fed rate increases do directly impact credit card rates, car loans, and commercial loans, which are shorter in duration than a typical 30-year fixed mortgage.

For savers, a Fed rate hike may lead to higher returns on savings accounts and certificates of deposit (CDs). In addition, banks and other financial institutions may increase the interest rates they pay to savers to remain competitive, which can benefit savers looking to earn more on their savings.

A Fed rate hike may impact the stock and bond markets for investors. Typically, when interest rates rise, the value of stocks and bonds can fall as investors may shift their money to fixed-income investments with higher returns. However, the impact of a rate hike on the markets can be complex and depends on various factors, such as the overall state of the economy, inflation expectations, and global events.

Loan Limits Increased For 2026

Loan limits have increased for 2026. Each county in every state has its loan limit. That said, the new standard conforming loan limit is $832,750, and high balance limits in select high-priced areas can go up as high as $1,063,750 for 1-unit properties in 2026.

Visit our 2026 conforming loan limit pages for Washington State, Oregon, Idaho, California, and Colorado.

For FHA loan limits, see our 2026 FHA pages for Washington State, Idaho, Colorado, California, and Oregon.

Check out our mortgage loan limit tool for conventional, FHA, and VA loans.

Instant Mortgage Rate Quote

Ready to Apply For a Mortgage?

Do you have questions about rates this week and home loans? Or are you ready to apply for a mortgage to buy a home? If so, Sammamish Mortgage can help. We are a local mortgage company from Bellevue, Washington, serving the entire state, as well as Oregon, Idaho, California & Colorado. We offer many mortgage programs to buyers all over the Pacific Northwest and have been doing so since 1992. Our programs include the Diamond Homebuyer Program, Cash Buyer Program, and Bridge Loans. Contact us today with any questions you have about mortgages.